7/30/11 Saturday Forecast, The week ahead and a tropical uupdate.

A cool front pushed through New England last night, however, today will be much warmer, although drier and a Northwest wind will keep it warm even at the coast and out on the Cape today. 

Sunday also looks to be sunny, but expect a sea breeze to form which will keep coastal locations a bit cooler.

A warm day today, A sea breeze develops Sunday afternoon.  AM showers on Monday and Showers on Wed.

Tropical Outlook.

As we enter August, it is time to start looking at tropical storms and hurricanes that can affect New England.  On the map today the main interest will be a low in the mid-Atlantic ocean.  This low is likely to develop and track toward Puerto Rico by Wednesday. Then a turn to the NW is expected.  Always worth looking out for, but at this time it appears that the storm (if to develop will track out to sea)

Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Don may curve around and track through New England next weekend and bring a chance of showers.

Don weakened to a remnant low over Texas and will move around the high pressure during the week. This will focus rain in some areas along its track.

Don

Tropical Storm Don is moving toward the south Texas coast.

7/28/11

When you enter a true summer pattern, the weather becomes sort of a "repeat".  This would be the case say in the Carolina's southward to the mid West.   Disturbances or fronts have a hard time working their way south and if they do, the primarily loose a lot of energy with them and just usher in some drier air, but the heat remains.

Here in New England, we are more fortunate to be closer to the jet stream which typically moves to Canada this time of year, so we do get those disturbances and on occasion can be quite severe.  However the main airmass is finally in place.

On Friday a disturbance will move out of Ontario through the area kicking off some showers and thunderstorms.  Some severe storms are possible, especially west of Boston. The activity should begin around 1-3 PM with some thunderstorms possible and continue into very early Saturday morning, clearing by sunrise.  Rainfall could be quite heavy with over an inch possible and higher in such thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will fall between 7pm and midnight.  Some strong winds are possible especially on the Cape.

Rainfall for Friday at 8PM. Most of the heaviest rain will be in Northern New England through VT and NH, however areas north of Boston will still get some heavy showers.  Prepare for wet, heavy rain conditions with thunderstorms.

Saturday and Sunday are dry days!  A northwest wind on Saturday will dry us out, but keep us warm and a sea breeze on Sunday will keep the coastal areas cooler. 

The next chance for rain comes in late Sunday night into Monday morning.

7/27/11 Typical Summer

Remember in June when we were complaining that we were stuck in a cool pattern with days of rain and highs only in the 60s.  Well now we are stuck in a pattern that seems to be favorable to many.

We are under control of the Bermuda High for most of our weather, however unlike last weeks record highs, we will be on the northern extent of this high which will allow a few minor disturbances to rush in , but also allow for the humidity to be in check as air from Canada has a chance to move in.

We can expect  seasonable temperatures for the week ahead. A weak warm front will usher in showers for Friday, but not a total washout of a day. A flow from the south over the weekend will increase the humidity some by Saturday.

7/22 More Heat!

Today will be the hottest day of the year and it will feel worse combined with the humidity. The high will be 100F in most areas around Boston. Heat index values will feel right around 110.  The only decent thing about today is that the dew point will drop from the mid 70s this morning into the mid 60's, so you may feel 'cooler' today and not as sweaty.

With such excessive heat it is important to not over exert ones self, drink plenty of liquids, non-alcoholic is preferred and stay in the shade. Heat illnesses can occurr in such conditions today.

Coolest areas will be right at the coast and on Cape Cod where temperatures will reach the upper 80s. The heat lasts into Saturday, with Sunday temperatures will be 20 degrees cooler!

               

The high humidity will allow for some sea fog to invade parts of the Cape and Islands today.

7/20/11 Excessive Heat!

An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect. As eluded to last week, the Bermuda High has set up, extending into the central US. This high pressure will allow temperatures to rise into the 90's with an increase in the dew point. This combined will give a heat index in the Boston area of around 100 degrees. This heat will last into Saturday when a cool front from Canada will bring a temporary relief in dew points. The heat however remains building in the plains and will return next week.

One relief, albeit small will be a strong breeze to help remove moisture away from your body, but it will be a hot wind.

With such temperatures and humidity, nighttime lows will not fall far and  expect some areas to remain near 80 on Thursday night.

Heat Index Map for Thursday. Much of the eastern US will have high heat indices. Dark ORANGE = 97+

The heat index is what the temperature feels like on the body when you take the temperature and dew point together.  A high dew point means that it is harder for moisture (sweat) to evaporate off of your body and you can feel hotter and your natural cooling system will be overworked if exerted.  See example below.

Today's High Temperatures- Coolest at the Cape, Islands, Gloucester.

In for the first heat wave of 2011!

 Example:

A temp of 95 with a dewpoint of 74 on Friday will give you a Rel Humidity of 51%. In the summer that will feel very hot. Keep in mind, for example. Your body will "feel" to only cool to 74 degrees and only 50% of the sweat on your body will evaporate.(if the dew point were 58 as it were this past Sunday, you would have 29% humidity 71% of your sweat would evaporate and your body could feel like it cools to 58 in a breeze.

7/18/11 Wicked Hot

Ok, so we will not be experiencing the type of conditions out in the plains with heat indices in the 120s, however our first heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90+ temperatures) may occur by late week.

Today - Severe weather is the main concern for the afternoon with wind damage being the biggest factor, followed by hail and a small threat for tornadoes is possible across New England today.  It will not be an outbreak like June 1, however some areas will see very intense storms. Todays storms should resemble bow echo type storms with strong straight line winds.

A line of showers and storms across NY this morning will trek into the state by late morning and could spark off some thunderstorms.

The biggest threat of storms lies later today between 4 and 8 pm. With a humid airmass in place expect heavy down pours as well.