10/18/11 Less Sun time, then some heavy rain..

Fall can bring some great beauty to the landscape around us, but for many it can be offset by the fact the days are much noticeably shorter. Today was just one of those days when the sunrise and sunset fell close or near the top of the hour.

In our weather a weak disturbance will move through during the early hours bringing some clouds, but will also begin to clear out as the afternoon progresses.

Then a storm gathering some strength over the MS River valley (2) will pick up Gulf moisture (3) from a tropical disturbance and strengthen into a potent nor'easter during the day on Wednesday.

Rainfall will be heavy during the afternoon and overnight Wednesday with localized flooding possible again. 2-3 inches of rain could fall with this storm.

The track of the low is seen nicely in the spread of rainfall across the eastern seaboard.

Wind will also be a factor in our weather during the day Wednesday with winds sustained 15 - 25 mph and a few higher gusts from the Northeast.

10/17/11 Seasonably warm followed by storm!

A weak and fast moving front pushed through New England overnight, bringing a few scattered showers. This front will clear the Cape by mid morning as the sun has already returned to Boston .

Temperatures will be above normal today climbing to near 70.

Tuesday will be sunny, but a developing winter type storm over the Rockies (1) will dig south and pick up a developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico (2)

2 Weather systems will affect our weather mid week!

The two storms will likely become one larger storm, at this time I do not see the tropical storm surviving here to New England, but instead combining to become a very strong warm nor'easter bringing very heavy rainfall to area.**

Such a tropical influence could bring over 3" of rain to some areas on ground that has been soaked by Irene, Lee and other storms this year.

A combined effort of a winter type storm with a tropical storm will bring in strong winds and heavy rain to New England.

Right now there are several ideas as to how this storm will evolve and how much of the tropical storm will remain.

Sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend ahead!

** Meteorology Note: Development of a Nor'Easter

In a typical nor'easter storm, usually a weak low will drop out of either Alberta or the Rockies, perhaps bring some light precipitation.

Weak Low Pressure is over the Rockies and TX

The low will track east with still little in the way of strength

The low moves into the Mississippi River Valley

The low begins to get moisture, a source of energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico and the temperature contrast from the cooler air digging in from Canada. A tropical storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico (not typical)

The low moves into TN, and starts to bring warmer air north and colder air in behind it.

The original low moves up the Appalachians, whereas the tropical storm moves into Florida. This is when the two storms begin to combine their energy. Of note, if the tropical storm was not there, in a normal nor'easter situation, a coastal low would have formed near this location as energy is transferred from the original low to a more efficient energy source, the ocean.

The original low hangs back out over WV, OH and western PA. This usually produces light precipitation, however, the main low is now the ocean or coastal low, in this case a combined energy from the tropical low and the temperature contrast,at this time the tropical low is no longer tropical. But will have a lot of moisture with it.

By the end of the cycle, the low original low is now lost or weakened into the major circulation of the major nor'easter as it continues to strengthen.

10/15/11 A sunny, dry windy weekend! Major storm mid week!

Sunshine and a dry northwest wind will help dry the soggy landscape over the weekend.

A major autumn storm will track up the coast during the day on Wednesday into Thursday bringing heavy rain and strong winds, a classic nor'easter, however temperatures will be way too warm for any snow, except in the highest elevations.

10/14/11 Kinda soggy...

A large upper low pressure system over Ontario and the remnants of the unnamed Florida tropical storm are creating a soggy Friday over New England.

A strong 988mb low over the Great Lakes will usher in windy but drier conditions with seasonable temperatures for the weekend in southern New England.  This low will deepen to around 970mb!

This low with compacted isobars (lines of equal pressure) as seen on the map above will move eastward Friday night bringing the chance of Thunderstorms associated with a cold front that are seen over PA and NY. Once the front passes the wind will shift to the west and northwest creating a very breezy day.

The low has a lot of clouds associated with it. Here in southern New England, we should get into the clearing that is seen over NJ and VA for the day on Saturday and Sunday, while northern VT and NH and Maine will see more clouds.

Saturday and Sunday will be quite windy. Peak winds speeds are shown in MPH, with gusts up to 35 mph expected along the Cape and Islands, 30 mph along the immediate coastline of MA.  A whopping 125 mph atop Mt. Washington in NH and just of note, an intense 60mph wind on Lake Erie, which will likely cause a major seiche! The piling up of water on one end of the lake, as much as 3 feet, almost like a storm surge.

Sun will fade behind clouds again later on Sunday as the back edge of the low moves through.

A coastal storm will threaten Wednesday into Thursday with rain and wind again. Snow in the highest elevations.

10/11/11 A whatchamacallit forecast, high elevation snow next week??

Crazy headline right?  A very interesting weather system hit Florida during the overnight Sunday into Monday morning with hurricane force wind gusts, high seas, coastal flooding, a foot of rain, yet officially it was nothing, meaning not a hurricane or tropical storm (as of yet). A good article was written here about it if you are interested.

This weather system, much weaker now will bring the chance for showers into the forecast for New England as it moves northward late Wednesday into Friday night.

High Pressure over Canada will keep us dry through Wednesday, however the effects of the winds around the high and the storm to the south will create an east wind off the ocean, allowing for cooler conditions than we have seen over the past few days.  The LOW over Saskatchewan will meet with the southern low to produce a period of rain for Thursday into Friday. The storm is a fast mover and will likely be out of the picture by Saturday.

Rain will be heavy over the next few days with up to 3" falling in some areas that do not need any more rainfall.

A look into a future forecast:

An extremely large storm system could possibly move out of Canada next week and produce the first significant Nor'easter for the winter season. Higher elevations in New England and New York could see their first snow falls. A lot can change in a week.

Record High in Boston today!

10/09/11 Record Highs Expected Today

Enjoy the weather today and tomorrow. Record high temperatures are likely across much of the region.

In Boston, the old record is 82 set back in 1942.

Thanks to a large area of high pressure overhead the air will heat up very nicely.

There will be a gradual cool down over the week ahead, when the next weather system, an area of showers developing over the Bahamas this morning will likely track northward. It is uncertain at this point whether this will be a tropical system or just a good ole fashioned storm.