6/12/12 Heavy Rains for Wednesday

So far, the months of May and June have looked, at least on weather map, like March and April. And vice versa.  The map below shows a pattern more typical of Spring than that of entering the summer solstice next week.

The flow between high pressure over Canada and a Low in the Atlantic means sun, but mild conditions will exist along the east coast for several days. The heat it being pumped into the central Plains.  Also very interesting this year, interesting spin ups of tropical type storms may be happening in such a pattern close to the S Coast.  The high moves into Atlantic Canada this weekend, keeping New England dry, but cool.

For Tuesday, a cold front will slowly push toward New England during the day, expect Sun to be replaced with increasing high clouds to all clouds by late afternoon. Rain arrives by 11 PM in the Boston area. Highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday morning will be a rough go with heavy rain falling in a line from Maine to Long Island.  Up to  a half inch of rain could fall. Heavier amounts over Western New England.

The rain should last for most of the day and taper to showers by afternoon.

After this front pushes through, it will remain well off shore, except for the southern end of it which may Spin up an area of low pressure and track SOUTH as high pressure dominates the east coast. This is an a-typical high as it is coming in from the North Atlantic spreading down the east coast and not a Bermuda high which typically allows warm air to flow north. 

An onshore flow will keep coastal areas cool an a bit breezy, but dry.

This map is difficult to see, but a sprawling area of high pressure will extend from Atlantic Canada all the way to Florida for the weekend.

6/6/12 Summer to return this weekend. Major heat next week!

There is a lot to be said about this past weekends weather. The hows and whys of why it got cold are quite detailed and it is not just one simple answer, in fact it is something in meteorology we call, teleconnections.   This means that many small events, all around the globe can react to cause another event.  Like the butterfly flapping its wings effect.  If any readers wish, I will gladly write a post about what happened. So please respond.  Otherwise, lets look ahead, because frankly, you are not planning for last weekend!

The culprit for the cool, wet weather is still seen on this mornings weather map. An area of low pressure over Atlantic Canada. The flow around this low is bringing very cool air streaming in from the cold waters of the North Atlantic into the Northeast.  The Bermuda high has been pushed south. Heat is building in the central plains.

The weekend weather map, shows warmer air building to our west, a warm front will push through on Saturday evening to bring a chance of a shower along with warmer weather for Sunday into Monday.

Next week looks to be warm, followed by a HOT pattern setting up where highs will possibly get into the 90s.

5/25/12 We have a little bit of everything for everybody! Even HEAT!

This Memorial Day weekend forecast sounds more like a forecast one would be making for Labor Day.  Many features are happening on the weather maps and I hope to convey some of them to you below.

This mornings satellite image shows many of the features that will play in this weekends weather as well as into next week. For New England and Boston the focus will be on a cold front that will push north of us today and the high pressure over the south. A tropical storm is likely forming off the Carolina coast today. Each detailed below.

1.  The cold front -  This front will actually push well north of New England into Canada today and on the day Saturday, allowing the area of high pressure to the south to nudge in for Saturday and give us a very warm day.  However this cold front sneaks back down from Canada on Saturday night and runs into this large area of high pressure to the south and gets stuck over New England at least until Tuesday.

2.  The Hot High pressure that will bring heat to the south nudges in for one day of warmth on Saturday bringing temperatures into the 80s. However the front eventually comes back through and turns the winds east off the ocean and pushed the hotter air back to the mid Atlantic.

3. Disturbances will ride along the front to bring the chances for showers each day into Tuesday

4. A tropical storm is likely to be forming (out of season) off the coast of the Carolinas.  The weather pattern can actually be seen in its model track being pushed back south into GA/FL by late this weekend and then eventually up the coastline and out to sea by next week.

If you would like to see the Atmosphere in motion, click HERE and push FWD, very fascinating pattern.. You do not need to be a meteorologist to understand. What you are seeing is the flow of the atmosphere and the pressure (weather systems)

5/22/12 RAINachusetts... Yup! More rain. Memorial Day Outlook

Thanks to my friend Mikey for today's headline!  Royalties to come in the mail.

Today's weather map has some great weather features on it, if you are a meteorologist!  Not if you are a fan of sunshine, but have no fear, a big warm up is on the way.

An area of low pressure is slowly tracking up the northeast coast, bringing an east wind to most of NE. This will keep our sky cloudy with scattered showers for most of the day.  The former tropical storm Alberto will track well south of New England and eventually become part of the larger overall low pressure with no impact to land areas.    A cold front will slowly push east and bring the chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Scattered rain will be with us for  most of the day today as bands rotate in around the low over the South Shore

Weekend weather map...  High pressure will build across the South pumping heat into the plains and the Northeast. However, a cold front may be hard to displace. At this time, it is too soon to say whether the Boston area will be in the heat or in the cooler marine air.

With the above statement made, the weekend here in New England will end up sunny and hot or cool with some scattered showers.  As the week progresses, we can evaluate the pattern, right now I will go in the middle and not warm us up and keep a scattered shower possible.

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms are possible into Thursday. A more humid airmass moves in late Thursday in to the weekend.

At this point, most areas will see Sunshine, through the weekend. A possible shower is possible on the Cape on Saturday.

5/16/12 Summer Thunderstorms Possible today

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms are possible today primarily west of Boston in Western and Central MA, NH and northern CT away from the influence of the ocean air. The primary threat today will be hail and strong straight line -bow type winds and heavy rain. As with any severe weather event a tornado cannot be ruled out, but conditions do not favor rotation of storms today.

1 PM today, some thunderstorms may develop along the Northshore. 

A thunderstorm set up today, as the rain will push away from the coast. The factor for how strong the storms across MA will get is when the low clouds break away over New England. With such situation. The sun acts as the energy source to promote thunderstorm growth. The more sun and heating of the day, the stronger the storms can become. Therefore, if the clouds break away along the coastline BEFORE 11-12 today, there is the chance for a pop up, isolated thunderstorm before the main line arrives later this afternoon.

A line of thunderstorms will move out of NY into New England around 4-5 PM today. Heavier storms are also possible in Northern Vermont, NH and Maine as well. A sea breeze will likely keep any severe weather limited along the MA coastline, however a pop up thunderstorm is still possible on the Boston area.  If you are curious you can view the model run here to see a loop 

An image to show where to expect heavy downpours associated with Thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be in Central and Western MA today. The RED indicates the current time give at 7 PM tonight and the Green indicates a time 90 min prior at 530 PM.  Note the BOW echo nearing Worcester. Strong winds could be possible.

After today, a great stretch of sunshine and mild temperatures return through early next week with mild days and cooler dry nights.

5/8/12 A very unsettled weather pattern remains for May

Someone told me yesterday, "Why can't the weather be like it was back in March?"  Remember the stretch of sunshine and warmth.

 May is looking very cool and wet for New England and the pattern does not seem to change in the next 2 weeks. With the exception of this weekend where dry air and some sun will make for a beautiful May weekend.

A main area of low pressure will remain over the Northeast US for much of this week bringing clouds and rain showers into New England. Another area of low pressure over Minnesota (1), will join with this low and keep the clouds and rain around for Wednesday into Thursday. And a 2nd low, over Texas, will track across the south and then up the east coast and bring a chance for heavy rain especially along Eastern Mass Thursday into Friday morning.  High pressure over Montana will move in later Friday into the weekend to bring sunshine and gradually warmer temperatures.

Rainfall forecast up to 6 PM today. Heavy showers will fall across NH and VT, where eastern MA will see roughly 1/4" and the cape only a light shower.  The rain will be around through Friday morning however.

Heavy rain will fall Wednesday into Thursday across Cape Cod where up to 3" of rain could fall total. Boston will likely see up to an inch of rain.

(had to revert for older graphics for today for time)

5/6/12 Lack of posts.. and Wet wet wet...

First of all I would like to apologize for the lack of posts this past week. A new job has limited the time to prepare a forecast properly.

To make a good forecast for this blog, usually takes a minimum of 1 hour and sometimes up to 2 hours PLUS, depending on what is going on. 

So what is going on?   Briefly, the pattern that had been persistent from last Fall, through the winter into early April has shifted and we are now in a flow in which the storm track tends to be directly over us, or even to the south of New England.

It is something I like to refer to as the "roller coaster effect"

You can think of the jet stream as a roller coaster track, with the storms going along. New England just happens to be in the dip of the track so everything just pours into the region, the wet and the cool weather. 

A weak front will help usher in some drier air today on Sunday, but with a lot of moisture in the ground from days of rain, the sun will help produce some clouds before there is enough drier air to overtake the moisture.  The weak stationary front to the south will be a focus for the storm track later this week as mid week looks wet.