4/14/12 Summer Heat Returns Again

Once again, a major warm up will be expected across Boston this weekend and on the Patriots Day Holiday on Monday, which does not bode well for Marathon Runners.  Expect summer like heat to be in place across much of southern New England until Wednesday.

For today, Saturday,  the last of the cool air will be pushed out and we can expect most areas to rise into the lower 70s.

A south wind will keep south coastal areas cooler as the wind blows in off of the ocean.

The battle between summer and spring will play out along a cold front slowly approaching from the midwest into early next week, but most of the active weather and colder air will get pushed north and a return to normal temperatures return by mid week.

A chance for an evening Thunderstorm is possible each evening and overnight.

Tropical Update - Possible Alberto to form Next Week, no threat to land

A cold front that will push off the US coast will stall over the warm waters of the Atlantic early next week with a wave of low pressure forming along it, roughly 1100 miles east of Florida.  This low will sit and could take on tropical or subtropical characteristics, with winds around 55 mph.

No threat to any land is expected.  If it gets above 39 mph, it would be named Alberto. (if it gains enough tropical characteristics, which the models do hint at.)

Model satellite image showing what looks to be a well defined semi-tropical low 1100 miles east of Florida early next week.

Model Surface map and precipitation, showing banding features, which is typical of a semi-tropical system.

In the month of April, two other sub tropical cyclones have formed in 1992 and in 2002.

4/11/12 Summer comes back for the weekend!

A stubborn area of cold low pressure over Canada will bring more of an influence to our weather today and tomorrow as it slowly begins to move south and east and eventually out to sea late on Thursday.

The cold air continues to filter in as it rotates around the low pressure.

The air aloft is quite cold at around 5,000 feet. (Well below freezing). Higher elevations today may see a snow flake or some ice pellets in the pop up showers that form. Interestingly, the highest elevations in New England have seen close to TWO FEET of snow!

With situations where you cook the surface of the Earth with sunshine and you have extremely cold air just above the surface you get an excellent chance for rising air and a wide array of pop up showers to form. These showers will be quite random across the northeast. There will not be much in the way of lifting to produce thunderstorms, but enough cold air could help produce some ice pellets to drop from the sky or a snowflake or two.

The low moves out to sea by Thursday night and is replaced by high pressure that will set up off of the Carolinas. This will help bring sunshine and usher in a warm southwest wind for the weekend.  Expect highs to reach into the 70s for the weekend, with an 80 possible on Sunday. However, clouds and a late day shower or thunderstorm may keep temperatures slightly cooler than what they could be.

Weekend weather pattern shows warm air surging into the northeast. A cold front and area of low pressure over Lake Superior will move close to the Northeast by later Sunday.

Today's (SLEET) accounts for some ice pellets that may fall in a few showers especially across the higher terrain. Sun returns for Friday and Saturday. An 80 is possible on Sunday, depending on the timing of the cloud arrival.

4/0/12 Red Flags, Showers and Sun.

A retrograding area of low pressure (moving in from Atlantic Canada) will keep our weather unsettled for most of the week with a mix of showers, clouds and some sun.  The further north you go in New England, the more clouds you will see for the week.  Since this low is to our north, and being mostly cut off from the main flow of the atmosphere, we will only see a few minor effects of this low.

We can expect scattered showers for much of the week. The flow around the Low in Canada and the High over the South will track over southern New England for much of the week, this will help keep temperatures seasonal and the heavier rains to the north.

What is known as a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the day today. This takes into account the dryness of the ground, wind speeds and the threat for fires (brush fires).   Winds will be gusty today, reaching the 30-35 mph. Please take care with any burning materials today.

4/3/12 How does it feel to be normal?

After several months of warm weather, April is trending now to be pretty much normal. There are no major cold spells seen, nor are there any major warm ups as well. 

Pretty much, temperatures holding in the 50s and maybe a 60.  If anything, the progression of the spring season is setting up as it should with New England, the last to get into the warmer weather, but just go several hundred miles south and warmer air tends to be in place.

This true color image from Modis from yesterday shows how spring is moving up from the south to the north. The green is picking up all vegetation including trees, grass and crops. In the northeast, and Canada, the trees are still budded and there are more trees than open grassy areas so it is still picking up the barren landscape. (I will post later today's cloudless image if available)

New England is cut off from the warming high to the south and is primarily under the influence of a cooler Canadian high pressure that will allow for cooler air to flow into the region. This air is not necessarily colder, it just keeping the overall temperatures near normal with colder nights and mild days. This pattern looks to hold on for the next two weeks.  Weak storms will move along the jet stream which will wobble back and forth to reinforce the cooler air with a day or two of warmer weather possible. Meanwhile, Spring and warmth remain to the just to the south.

With this all stated, temperatures will still be slightly above normal, in the Boston area. The ocean will influence the air temperatures over much of coastal New England with inland areas reaching the 60s and immediate coastal locations will fail to reach 50.  This can be expected in such a pattern.

Inland areas will reach the 60s, where the coastal locations will be influenced by the ocean and be cooler today. Expect full sunshine.

Temperatures will be cooler along the Cape and the Coast during the week ahead.

4/1/12 Sunday's Weather - 80s Style!!!

An inspired thanks to Google Maps NES tribute maps, I thought it would be fun to make some weather graphics that were considered high tech in the mid to late 80's for today's blog.

Sun will give way to clouds and showers today, as an approaching weak storm system moves in from Canada later this afternoon. Expect showers to arrive around 5 PM.  Todays highs will be just around normal reaching near 50 in most locations.

Google Maps NES 1987 version of New England Map with todays high temperatures.

Clouds will increase this afternoon from the west. In the 80s, most satellite images received by TV stations were of low quality and only a few pixels. It could take up to 15 minutes to get this image and disk space was at a minimum to store this 2MB image.

Rain over New York will arrive in the Boston area around 5 PM.  If a TV station was lucky and had money in the 80s it could tap into the NWS Telephone line to access the radar sweep from the WSR 57 Radars.  Only 5 colors would be could be shown to indicate intensity. Most maps looked like this with 3 letter airport codes to indicate cities.  (NOTE: the snow colors did not arrive until the later 90s as seen on this de-hanced map) 

In the 80s, weather forecasts were considered to be most accurate out to 4 days. Some places started giving out a 5 day forecast, but this could be filled with A LOT of errors, so it was safer for the meteorologists to only give a 4 day forecast, and at that time, only high temperatures for the day were given.

Maps:  accuweather.com   intellicast. com and maps.google.com

3/28/2012 A mild rain will fall.

A warm front will push through New England today bringing a few need rain showers along with it. 

The first batch of rain, which will be light, will fall this morning between 9 and 11 AM, and mostly be confined to the NH/MA border.

Another line of rain will move through the Boston area between 1230 and 130 this afternoon. There could be a heavier shower, but will be over by 2 PM.

 An area of Low pressure tracking into Quebec will have a cold front trailing along it and this will push into the region by this evening.  There is the chance that southern parts of New England may see a rumble of thunder or at least a heavier shower around 7 PM tonight.

High pressure off of the Carolinas will usher in milder air ahead of a cold front poised to sweep across the northeast today. Cooler air is behind this front, but not as cold as the past 2 days.

The weather pattern has changed significantly from last week and is more typical of an early Spring, April Pattern. This means that we can expect, waves of colder air to move in, followed by spells of warmth as an almost regular interval. This is what is seen for the next 2 weeks.

An area of low pressure will track to the South of New England Friday night. On its northern edge, a band of snow may develop. While the low will stay south and not track up the coast, an area of brief but heavy snow could fall in SW Mass through CT and Rhode Island overnight Friday. Amounts are still not known, but the ground could get covered in the darker blue areas. A lighter snow could fall for the remainder of Mass with a mix along the coasts and the Cape.  Finer details to come. Of note: Some models keep it too warm to snow or just bring in the chance for a mix.