3/20/12 Spring has been pre-empted to bring you SUMMER!

It is one thing in meteorology to predict the weather say for the the next few hours and for the next few days when everything is as I quote "normal".  With this warm winter now past us, you should know that todays average high and low temperatures are 46 and 32. Thus when you have a record high temperature yesterday of 74, you just aren't ready to be as bold to go that high.

A lot of the models that we use to predict the weather take in to account the past and what it should be for this time of year. So yesterday, I was going out a bit to say that the high would reach 68, before a cold front pushed through to drop the temperatures. Well, that cold front waited several hours to reach Boston and allowed the temperature to warm even more.That is 22 degrees above where it should be.

Here comes even more of a challenge. How do you say it will be 40 degrees above where it should be.  Pinpointing the actual number is difficult. Many factors are going into the numbers, but here is a reason why I will go out and say, it will be 86 on Thursday.

At this level in the atmosphere, meteorologists look at temperatures at roughly 6000 feet. The temperatures at this level are running around 55-66 degrees. This is typical of what you would see in the summer months. This is one way you can forecast warm temperatures. (The orange over the Great Lakes is even warmer air)

Also, a strong west wind around the high pressure will allow winds to flow from the west and West southwest and blow off of the mountains to the west of Boston. As I stated last week, this will allow the air to compress as it comes off the higher hill tops and warm.  Thursday should be a windy day as well and will push the warm air all the way to the coast where a sea breeze will not have an impact on high temperatures.

As shown last week. The mountains to our west will help raise temperatures as a warm west wind will flow over the mountains to the West and warm even more, come Thursday. 

A southwest wind on Thursday will push some ocean cooled air over the south coast and the Cape to keep temperatures lower

It should be of note:  The warmth will leave us come later this weekend and will likely depart and return to just slightly above normal to near normal for the next 10 days after Saturday.