10/27/2011 Snow, Freezes and Storms - Oh My!

The weather over the next several days will be a wonderful mess and our first taste of WINTER!

Today- A front has stalled just south of New England today, a wave of low pressure will track along this front today bringing in showers with cool temperatures.  As the low passes to the east later today the wind flow around the low will shift to the north and west and will pull down much cooler air from Canada.

Morning temperatures showing colder air north in NH and VT pushing in south.  A Freeze Watch is in effect for coastal New England in WHITE.  Green indicates a coastal flood advisory.

Tonight - Colder, below freezing air works in to much of New England tonight, and will first change and rain showers will mix with snow then change to all snow by late tonight as the low exits the coast.  Snow may be seen flying around Boston late tonight, but it will be the higher elevations above 1000 feet that will see a light accumulation.

Snowfall potential tonight. Areas in white will see accumulations. Areas in BLUE will see snow fall, but not likely stick or become a slushy mess on the grass and car tops. Purple areas will see a few flakes mixed in without any issues.

 Frost/Freeze  Also, the temperature will drop below freezing over the metro Boston area. There has not been a frost or freeze in this area yet this fall, so the growing season is still in effect. Areas closest to the coast may hover around freezing where other areas may be in the 20s.  This means you should tend to all plants and vegetation that needs protection from the cold. This will be what is called an advective freeze, meaning the cold air is being pushed in (similar to a walk in freezer with fans) and frost cannot form. That is why it may freeze even at the coast  However it will be calm on Friday night, which will result in a radiational freeze ( the warm air escapes back into the atmosphere and is replaced by cold air at the surface). Coastal areas are protected by the warm ocean.

Overnight low temperatures, The red line marks the freezing line, which will hug the immediate coastline from Gloucester South, Boston could flirt with the freezing mark for a few hours. The Cape and Islands and South coast will remain above Freezing tonight.

Friday - Cool High pressure moves in for a sunny day but chilly. Frost and freezing likely at night.



Saturday  - Another storm exits the coast and will likely track south of New England, but it will likely throw some moisture and wind to parts of Southern New England on Saturday.

More on this storm in a later post today with a P-town forecast as well!

10/26/11 Early snow, Freeze & Weekend Storm??

A weak weather system is pushing through the north east this morning, bringing light showers and possibly a mix in the highest elevations of MA and NH.  This will be with us for most of the day, with a steadier rain to fall later this afternoon.

The scattered showers over southern PA will reach us by this afternoon. Pink areas show possible mixed precipitation.

This is ahead of a much cooler air mass that will plunge south and bring our warm autumn temperatures to an end.

The weather systems that will have an impact on our weather. 1) The disturbance that will push through today and bring light rain.  2) The disturbance that will push through Thursday and Thursday night to bring a chance of rain and snow. 3) The weekend disturbance that could be a major coastal storm. and RINA should have minimal impact on our weather.

Thursday - A fast moving storm now over the plains will exit the coast and develop into a moderate storm. At the same time it will pull down colder air from Canada and drop temperatures below freezing in many areas that will promote some snow flakes to fall late Thursday into early Friday morning.

Snow map for late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The lightest areas with a red surrounding could expect to see a light accumulation of snowfall.  All other areas in the BLUE color will likely see some snowflakes and maybe a dusting on some cooler surfaces but not accumulation expected, PURPLEs, perhaps just a passing flake. Coastal areas south of Boston and the Cape will be too warm for any snow to form.

Friday we are inbetween storms, however cold air will be overhead and with a clear night and cold air many areas that have not seen a frost or a killing freeze will likely see temperatures fall below freezing over much of New England, except right at the coast.

Weekend - The potential remains for a strong nor'easter to form. The current track is a bit south of New England, but some models do bring it closer and with cold air in place still, snow could fall once again, however heavy rain could be a possibility from the south coast to the Cape with strong gusty winds. More to come on this system tomorrow.

10/24/11 Say it isn't SNOW!

The tranquil weather that has been over New England will come to a sharp end this Wednesday as a coastal storm tracks up the coast.  This low will track south of New England and bring some rain showers  north of it on Thursday night and Friday.  However , the storm will drag in much colder air as it exits the coast. Some of the end precipitation may end as some wet snowflakes with some areas seeing a possible dusting of snow. Not likely in Boston, but if enough cold air works in a few flakes may be seen.

One models output for the potential for snow. The Worcester hills could see a light accumulation. I feel it will be too warm in the Boston area to see any accumulation from this weak storm.

Then, with some colder air in place, another storm, which a majority of the weather models develop a storm of the DelMarVa and bring the possibility of a major coastal storm to New England Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  The air will be cold enough that some of the early models are predicting an early snowfall for much of New England.

The storm may take on a bit of a tropical feature with a calm center passing over Cape Cod late Saturday into Sunday, however, winds around the storm could gust as high as 60mph +

Surface map for 7AM Sunday morning showing a 980mb low over Cape Cod. (981 is the threshold for a Category 1 hurricane)

Winds could be as high as 60mph along the New England coast Sunday morning (in purple)

And yes, it will be cold enough for the possibility of a snowstorm away from the coastline. This model is putting out a swath of 5" snows from Concord NH to Maine and a 4" swatch along 495. Lesser at the coast and none from the southshore to the Cape.

 This forecast is likely to change some, but the models are coming into agreement that there will likely be a strong storm coming this weekend with colder air.

10/23/11 Sunday sun.. then a world of changes

One of the inevitable aspects of late autumn is the fact that the number of warm days are few and far between whereas you can start to assume it is going to be cooler with some down right chilly days.

There is usually a week in the weather where the transition really becomes pronounced and this week will be that week. We will see temperatures in the 60's this week, but will struggle to get out of the 40s by weeks end.  If we do not hit 50 it will be the first time to not get out of the 40s since April 20.

The remainder of the week will feature small pulses of weather that will end up with a digging trough of colder air by the weekend for much of the east coast as colder air building in Canada will make its first major surge southward.

By Friday the colder air surges south and an overall cooling takes place

A stormy weather pattern is setting, right now a strong storm could track up the coastline during the late week to bring some rain and wind and may continue into the early weekend.

Interior parts and higher elevations may get some snow.

Spooky Bear - Strong Cold Nor'Easter Possible

Just a heads up, there is the potential for a very strong nor'easter to move up the coast next Friday night into the day on Saturday bringing in cold air, heavy rain and wind and the chance for snow is even possible.

This of course can change, but indications are for at least a return to late autumn weather by the end of next week, with temperatures in the lower 40s.

10/18/11 Less Sun time, then some heavy rain..

Fall can bring some great beauty to the landscape around us, but for many it can be offset by the fact the days are much noticeably shorter. Today was just one of those days when the sunrise and sunset fell close or near the top of the hour.

In our weather a weak disturbance will move through during the early hours bringing some clouds, but will also begin to clear out as the afternoon progresses.

Then a storm gathering some strength over the MS River valley (2) will pick up Gulf moisture (3) from a tropical disturbance and strengthen into a potent nor'easter during the day on Wednesday.

Rainfall will be heavy during the afternoon and overnight Wednesday with localized flooding possible again. 2-3 inches of rain could fall with this storm.

The track of the low is seen nicely in the spread of rainfall across the eastern seaboard.

Wind will also be a factor in our weather during the day Wednesday with winds sustained 15 - 25 mph and a few higher gusts from the Northeast.

10/17/11 Seasonably warm followed by storm!

A weak and fast moving front pushed through New England overnight, bringing a few scattered showers. This front will clear the Cape by mid morning as the sun has already returned to Boston .

Temperatures will be above normal today climbing to near 70.

Tuesday will be sunny, but a developing winter type storm over the Rockies (1) will dig south and pick up a developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico (2)

2 Weather systems will affect our weather mid week!

The two storms will likely become one larger storm, at this time I do not see the tropical storm surviving here to New England, but instead combining to become a very strong warm nor'easter bringing very heavy rainfall to area.**

Such a tropical influence could bring over 3" of rain to some areas on ground that has been soaked by Irene, Lee and other storms this year.

A combined effort of a winter type storm with a tropical storm will bring in strong winds and heavy rain to New England.

Right now there are several ideas as to how this storm will evolve and how much of the tropical storm will remain.

Sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend ahead!

** Meteorology Note: Development of a Nor'Easter

In a typical nor'easter storm, usually a weak low will drop out of either Alberta or the Rockies, perhaps bring some light precipitation.

Weak Low Pressure is over the Rockies and TX

The low will track east with still little in the way of strength

The low moves into the Mississippi River Valley

The low begins to get moisture, a source of energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico and the temperature contrast from the cooler air digging in from Canada. A tropical storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico (not typical)

The low moves into TN, and starts to bring warmer air north and colder air in behind it.

The original low moves up the Appalachians, whereas the tropical storm moves into Florida. This is when the two storms begin to combine their energy. Of note, if the tropical storm was not there, in a normal nor'easter situation, a coastal low would have formed near this location as energy is transferred from the original low to a more efficient energy source, the ocean.

The original low hangs back out over WV, OH and western PA. This usually produces light precipitation, however, the main low is now the ocean or coastal low, in this case a combined energy from the tropical low and the temperature contrast,at this time the tropical low is no longer tropical. But will have a lot of moisture with it.

By the end of the cycle, the low original low is now lost or weakened into the major circulation of the major nor'easter as it continues to strengthen.