10/26/12 Please take serious read about Sandy

I know you want to know where Sandy is going and what will happen for you?

There are 2 main scenarios as to where Sandy is going to go.

2.  Sandy makes a very hard left toward the NJ, Delmarva coast. ( discussed later)

1.  Sandy still turns left, but gets a bit further north and tracks WEST along the Southern
     New England coast.


Lets take a look at # 1.   (for my MA friends)

This idea scares me so much.  Most everyone reading this will not even be able to comprehend what could happen in this type of situation. 

 

Hurricane Sandy in this scenario runs up the coast but come back west toward the SE Massachusetts coastline by 8 AM Tuesday morning. 

Sandy then either skirts the south coast into Long Island or NYC. What is frightening is that in all of history, most hurricanes are coming at New England from the south and moving Northeast.  Sandy will NOT be doing this

Sandy will be coming at New England from the North West.  The worst part of Sandy will be her right front quadrant relative to storm motion. Wind will pile waves

For Boston tho:

• Possibly 6 hours + of hurricane force winds ( Green area)
• Coastal Storm Surge 3-6 feet. Cat 1 or 2.
• Waves 30+feet 
• Rainfall 

If you are concerned about where you live, check out the maps at this link http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/nhp/HESfacts.cfml?pgid=109

each town, or region is mapped out to show you the effects of storm surge in your area. Prepare now!!  

Winds -  the scariest situation I am seeing is both storm surge and WIND.   One of the computer models is suggesting that 115 mph wind speeds will be just above the surface (indicated in the browns on the map below)  Since Sandy will not be in a true tropical state, these winds could mix down to the surface at any given time.   Note too the wind field with Sandy it HUGE!   Gales extend from South Carolina to Nova Scotia and back to Ohio and Ontario!

If you want to see what Sandy could be capable of doing, watch this video from 1938.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b21g-5YBLs

Follow these tips to prepare yourself.

http://www.mass.gov/eopss/agencies/mema/mema-offers-tips-as-hurricane-sandy-approaches.html

10/22/12 Halloween Storm Sandy

There is some hype going on about the potential for a major storm event to take place beginning later this week.

Right now, an area of low pressure is developing over the Caribbean Sea.

The low will be slow to move northward and will be in the Bahama's , later this weekend. If named it will be Sandy.

For New England - the weekend looks sunny and mild.

Then next Monday - all of the east coast from North Carolina to New England needs to prepare for a late season, prolonged deluge storm. 

Interestingly, the GFS ( a computer model) has a Grace/Perfect Storm set up this morning. With a Nor'easter developing over New England, ingesting the moisture from what could be Sandy.

Although it looks not as mennacing as what will follow, the models keep this low/Sandy spinning off the New England coast for 6 days. This could bring a lot of wind, erosion and more.

A more intense situation lies in several other model outputs showing Sandy tracking up the east Coast.  The Nor'Easter still develops, but instead, keeps Sandy as a separate entity and merges the two into a powerful storm over the mid Atlantic and North east next Tuesday into the week. 




There are some discussing a similar weather pattern setting up to that of 1954 and the infamous Hurricane Hazel.  The initial pattern looks similar, but in this case, Sandy then could get trapped in or just off the Northeast.

9/3/12 - Tropical Impacts for New England - Next Week.

1st -  Let me apologize for being absent for much of the summer. I have been embarking on a new career path that has taken up a lot of my time. However, I still would like to present important weather information seems appropriate to you, however, at this time a daily forecast cannot be made. When the business aspect takes off, then I hope to be able to do a little bit of both!

2nd - The time has come to update you a possible impact from Tropical Cyclone Leslie.

An interesting meteorological pattern may be setting up, one that we saw in 1989. 

Hurricane Leslie is expected to pass near Bermuda later this week. Typically this track means clear sailing for much of the United States coastline and only a threat to Atlantic Canada.

However, some changes are occurring that are having some meteorologists rethink the eventual track of Leslie.

A trough of low pressure that was forecast to develop and pick up and kick Leslie out to sea, will appear to be actually closing off over the Southeast US.   This will act, instead of a kicker, as a pull system and pull Leslie closer to the US Coast.

As was the case with hurricane Hugo in 1989, the track, not seen brought the hurricane in on a direct path into SC.    This will not be a Hugo, however, what I am seeing is a storm that could be pulled closer to the US coast as it passes by Bermuda, an unusual pattern.  This has been coming to light throughout the day today.  

The worst case scenario now could be that Leslie tracks very close to the Outer Cape (Cod) on Tuesday of next week as a very strong hurricane. Some models are bringing this to a Category 4 near Bermuda.   The track could change of course, and I will keep you posted on any changes!   The least worrisome at this moment will still possibly bring some windy conditions to eastern New England, high seas and a possible shower closest to the coast.

Model Weather Map for Tuesday, Sept 11, 2012..  Leslie is very close to Cape Cod in a worst case scenario.  This may change, but it is something to watch.

6/29/12 Hot weather returns

A heat wave is expected to invade the Boston area this weekend (3 or more days above 90).

The massive heat that has been building in the Rockies and south will move in today and stay with us until Sunday, when a bit of a cool down back into the 80s returns for the holiday week.

It will be coolest along the coastal areas and south facing beaches today.

For today, Friday, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through during the morning hours, then reform later in the day. Expect mid 90s in most places, except upper 80s at the beaches with upper 70s to lower 80s on the Cape. Dew point levels will be dropping today, so it will not feel as humid today or tonight, but will rise over the weekend.

Our heat today is being transported in around a very HOT high pressure to the south. The flow for New England will be mostly west though so the extreme heat remains south.

Scattered Thunderstorms are possible each day, but no areas of organized rain is expected.

6/25/12 Cold then back to summer heat. Rain today!

A strong cold front is pushing its way across New England this morning that will bring heavy rains and thunderstorms across the region as the morning progresses.

Forecast radar image for 11 AM this morning, with one heavy band of showers and thunderstorms moving through Eastern MA.

As the front moves through, over an inch of rain could fall from the storms.  An area of low pressure will form just off the New England coast and will keep the rain from moving too far offshore and keep the clouds around more much of the coastal areas.

Tuesday looks to be a very cool and damp day with a few breaks of sun from time to time especially in southern locations.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be 10-12 degrees cooler than normal.  As the area of low pressure off the coast spins, it will allow for clouds to rotate around it and make for a cloudy day except for the southern parts of New England.

The cool is short lived once again and heat will return for the weekend.

Heat will build across the south east and move into New England for the weekend with temperatures getting into the upper 80s and lower 90s.   It will once again be short lived as a cold front will push through late Sunday into Monday.   Debby will be a slow mover off the FL coast.

6/19/12 Get Your A/C's - Summer is coming!!

Yes!  Summer will arrive tomorrow and the weather will also reflect summertime heat. The cool weather of the past few days will be pushed away as heat and humidity return for a full blast of HOT HOT HOT!!

How it will feel tomorrow afternoon

The heat will only last until Friday, as a another shot of cooler air moves in for the weekend.

However, it will remain extremely humid Wednesday and Thursday night with temperatures only falling into the upper 70s and it will be extremely sticky!   If you need an A/C  get it today before the stores have a mad rush on them!

6/12/12 Heavy Rains for Wednesday

So far, the months of May and June have looked, at least on weather map, like March and April. And vice versa.  The map below shows a pattern more typical of Spring than that of entering the summer solstice next week.

The flow between high pressure over Canada and a Low in the Atlantic means sun, but mild conditions will exist along the east coast for several days. The heat it being pumped into the central Plains.  Also very interesting this year, interesting spin ups of tropical type storms may be happening in such a pattern close to the S Coast.  The high moves into Atlantic Canada this weekend, keeping New England dry, but cool.

For Tuesday, a cold front will slowly push toward New England during the day, expect Sun to be replaced with increasing high clouds to all clouds by late afternoon. Rain arrives by 11 PM in the Boston area. Highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday morning will be a rough go with heavy rain falling in a line from Maine to Long Island.  Up to  a half inch of rain could fall. Heavier amounts over Western New England.

The rain should last for most of the day and taper to showers by afternoon.

After this front pushes through, it will remain well off shore, except for the southern end of it which may Spin up an area of low pressure and track SOUTH as high pressure dominates the east coast. This is an a-typical high as it is coming in from the North Atlantic spreading down the east coast and not a Bermuda high which typically allows warm air to flow north. 

An onshore flow will keep coastal areas cool an a bit breezy, but dry.

This map is difficult to see, but a sprawling area of high pressure will extend from Atlantic Canada all the way to Florida for the weekend.