4/20/12 Sunny, mild weather can be boring...

One of the biggest complaints from the general public about meteorologists is: "They get paid to lie and they are always wrong".  Well this week in point, I was wondering, how many of you thought, "The weather was horrible", "Or, those weathermen, all they said was sunshine and warm..(enter favorite curse)".   This is what tends to happen, when the weather is good and you have no interferences with any plans whether it be driving, a walk, or running a hot marathon, frankly it does not bother you.  It is what follows in my forecast that will then get you upset or make you a bit more weatherwise!

Enjoy the spring and summer like weather for the next 2 days, by Sunday, a potent Nor'Easter will track up the east coast to  bring wind and rain and cooler temperatures into the middle of next week.

Today - Bright sunshine, southwest wind around 8-15 mph will keep the sea breeze at the immediate coastline.  Highs near 80 in the Merrimack Valley, Mid 70s Boston and upper 50s to 60 Cape and Islands.

South facing coastal areas and the cape and Islands will be the coolest including Cape Ann today.

High pressure today will bring in a warming Southwest wind.  A cold front and Low over the Gulf will be our weather late on Saturday and into next week.

On Saturday - a mix of sun and clouds along with some fog will start the day as a cold front approaches but never reaches eastern New England. A south wind will still keep temperatures mild into the 70s. It should remain mostly dry until later afternoon.

The front is seen stretching from the Gulf of St Lawrence to Georgia and  low developing in the Gulf of Mexico on this forecast rain image.

Late Saturday into Monday - The cold front gets hung up over western New England as a major storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico and this storm helps push the front back to the west and will also be a focal point for very heavy rain with 1-3" of rain falling.

By Monday, the low and the front merge over New England to bring heavy rain and winds over New England on Monday. (A potent snowstorm could set up in the higher elevations of New York and even PA)

Subtropical Cyclone could be forming in Atlantic...

As mentioned last week, an area of low pressure east of Bermuda is becoming curiously subtropical in looks as it continues to slowly spin westward over the North Atlantic Ocean.

The storm would move near Bermuda, then be picked up by a cold front and pushed back out to sea come Thursday.

A close up of the swirl of the 999mb storm, if thunderstorms start forming near the center or around the bands of this storm, a subtropical cyclone could form.

4/16/12 A record HOT Patriots Day and Marathon Day!

Record heat will invade much of Southern New England (away from the south coasts) today with quite a few areas reaching the lower 90s as a southwest wind brings in the heat.

90s will be seen in the Merrimack Valley of NH and MA today. Elsewhere upper 80s are likely across much of the state.  South facing coastal areas and the Cape and Islands will be coolest today. 

Keep in mind the ocean water temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s!! 

UV readings will also be high today 6-7, which if outside without any sunscreen can produce a sunburn.

Fire danger is extremely high today, please use extreme caution if bbq'ing, smoking etc.  Any spark could ignite a brush fire as the ground is extremely dry and the dry conditions today will help fuel any fires.

The Marathon will be plagued with hot temperatures. I am sure if you are running you are aware of what the heat will do. If you are spectating, keep in mind the high temperatures can also take its toll on you with dehydration, sunburn and overheating. Please take care.

The cold front to the west will push through overnight tonight, but move well north of us, so temperatures will only gradually cool over the next few days.

4/14/12 Summer Heat Returns Again

Once again, a major warm up will be expected across Boston this weekend and on the Patriots Day Holiday on Monday, which does not bode well for Marathon Runners.  Expect summer like heat to be in place across much of southern New England until Wednesday.

For today, Saturday,  the last of the cool air will be pushed out and we can expect most areas to rise into the lower 70s.

A south wind will keep south coastal areas cooler as the wind blows in off of the ocean.

The battle between summer and spring will play out along a cold front slowly approaching from the midwest into early next week, but most of the active weather and colder air will get pushed north and a return to normal temperatures return by mid week.

A chance for an evening Thunderstorm is possible each evening and overnight.

Tropical Update - Possible Alberto to form Next Week, no threat to land

A cold front that will push off the US coast will stall over the warm waters of the Atlantic early next week with a wave of low pressure forming along it, roughly 1100 miles east of Florida.  This low will sit and could take on tropical or subtropical characteristics, with winds around 55 mph.

No threat to any land is expected.  If it gets above 39 mph, it would be named Alberto. (if it gains enough tropical characteristics, which the models do hint at.)

Model satellite image showing what looks to be a well defined semi-tropical low 1100 miles east of Florida early next week.

Model Surface map and precipitation, showing banding features, which is typical of a semi-tropical system.

In the month of April, two other sub tropical cyclones have formed in 1992 and in 2002.

4/11/12 Summer comes back for the weekend!

A stubborn area of cold low pressure over Canada will bring more of an influence to our weather today and tomorrow as it slowly begins to move south and east and eventually out to sea late on Thursday.

The cold air continues to filter in as it rotates around the low pressure.

The air aloft is quite cold at around 5,000 feet. (Well below freezing). Higher elevations today may see a snow flake or some ice pellets in the pop up showers that form. Interestingly, the highest elevations in New England have seen close to TWO FEET of snow!

With situations where you cook the surface of the Earth with sunshine and you have extremely cold air just above the surface you get an excellent chance for rising air and a wide array of pop up showers to form. These showers will be quite random across the northeast. There will not be much in the way of lifting to produce thunderstorms, but enough cold air could help produce some ice pellets to drop from the sky or a snowflake or two.

The low moves out to sea by Thursday night and is replaced by high pressure that will set up off of the Carolinas. This will help bring sunshine and usher in a warm southwest wind for the weekend.  Expect highs to reach into the 70s for the weekend, with an 80 possible on Sunday. However, clouds and a late day shower or thunderstorm may keep temperatures slightly cooler than what they could be.

Weekend weather pattern shows warm air surging into the northeast. A cold front and area of low pressure over Lake Superior will move close to the Northeast by later Sunday.

Today's (SLEET) accounts for some ice pellets that may fall in a few showers especially across the higher terrain. Sun returns for Friday and Saturday. An 80 is possible on Sunday, depending on the timing of the cloud arrival.

4/0/12 Red Flags, Showers and Sun.

A retrograding area of low pressure (moving in from Atlantic Canada) will keep our weather unsettled for most of the week with a mix of showers, clouds and some sun.  The further north you go in New England, the more clouds you will see for the week.  Since this low is to our north, and being mostly cut off from the main flow of the atmosphere, we will only see a few minor effects of this low.

We can expect scattered showers for much of the week. The flow around the Low in Canada and the High over the South will track over southern New England for much of the week, this will help keep temperatures seasonal and the heavier rains to the north.

What is known as a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the day today. This takes into account the dryness of the ground, wind speeds and the threat for fires (brush fires).   Winds will be gusty today, reaching the 30-35 mph. Please take care with any burning materials today.