7/09/11 Saturday Morning P-town Update Forecast

Morning rain showers will be coming to an end over the next few hours, so if your driving off to the Cape this morning, don't worry, it will be a wet start but by 9AM all should start to dry out although it will still feel humid until late afternoon.

Forecast for Ptown today.  High 77, low 64

 8 AM - Rain ends on most of Cape    69

10 AM - Cloudy a few breaks of sun  72

12 PM - A mix of sun and cloud  73

2 PM - Sunny    75

4 PM - Sunny a few clouds  77

6 PM - Sunny a few clouds  74

8 PM - Sunny  67

10 PM - Clear and drier 67

12 AM - Clear and comfy 66


Sunday outlook -  AM fog, a bit drier High of 81 Low 65

8 AM - Sunny.  70
12 PM - Sunny 77
2 PM - A few puffy clouds 80
4 PM - A few clouds 79
6 PM - Sunny 75
8 PM - Sunny 70


The Week Ahead

Monday - Increasing Clouds late in the day high 82

Tuesday - Cloudy with Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms high 84, humid

Wednesday - Morning Clouds, then sunny, drier high 75

Thursday - Sunny, high of 77

Friday - Sunny, high of 80

Saturday - Partly cloudy high of 79

7/08/11 A wet day... Weekend Forecast for Boston and Cape!

Scattered thunderstorms will be the rule of the day today. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures cool with highs in the 70s.  Some storms could be on the severe side and drop heavy rain.  The rain ends by Saturday morning for the Boston area and sun will return around noon.

A cold front pushes through the region overnight with rain ending by 5AM for Boston, 8 AM for P-town and  10 AM Chatham/Nantucket.

Sunshine and less humid on Saturday afternoon and Sunday!

Saturday weather: Morning clouds push out from the NW to the SE.  A west wind will keep temperatures warm even at the coastal areas tomorrow.  Warmest inland. Water temps in Blue

 

High clouds return Monday afternoon with the chance of a shower late in the day on Monday for Boston and overnight Monday into Tuesday on the Cape.

The tropical cyclone forecast threst from yesterday has diminished considerably.

P-town forecast to come in a later post.

Bear Week Forecast

Saturday - A cold front gets hung up along the Cape as a possible tropical storm moves south of Nantucket.  Heaviest rain overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Ending around 3 pm. A few clouds remain then sunshine by 5 PM.

Sunday - Morning fog, clearing to sunshine.

Monday - A few high clouds late in the day otherwise sunny.

Tuesday - Approaching cold front rain begins in the early morning hours on Tuesday and continues until 2 PM, clearing by 4 PM. Humid

Wednesday - Dry day, low humidity and sun

Thursday - Sunny and dry!

Friday - Sunny, a few clouds late, a bit warmer and humid.

Saturday - Increasing clouds, rain begins late in the day or evening hours, possible thunderstorm.

Sunday - Showers possible


Water Temp 68F

7/07/11 Weekend Outlook

A cold front stalls just south of New England until Saturday. This will allow moisture and clouds to be close to Boston, but most of the unsettled weather will be south and on the Cape. Another cold front pushes through Saturday afternoon to clear and dry things out. Next chance of rain is Tuesday.

Today - A warm but drier day with dry air continuing to push in throughout the day. High of 83. Boston

Friday - Sun very early then increasing clouds and rain by 11 AM with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day until evening. Heaviest rain between 2 and 5 PM.
High of 77. Humid.

Cold front slowly works its way through New England on Friday. Heaviest rain in the Boston area from 2PM to 5 PM. Rain reaches the Cape by 5 PM, heavy showers and thunderstorms 8PM to midnight

Saturday - Morning clouds, possible early shower, then clearing by 10 AM. A dry Northwest wind should keep conditions comfortable for much of Boston High of 78

Weather Map for Saturday Morning 7/9 at 11 AM.  Cold front pushes through most of New England as High Pressure builds in, except the Cape. A possible tropical storm tries to move up the coast from Florida, but the cold front blocks it, however could stall the frontal passage on the Cape and add more moisture until mid afternoon on Saturday.

Special Bear Week/ Cape Forecast to come in another post today.

7/06/11 HOT!!

The Return of the Bermuda High

Ok, if you are reading this from the southern states you may be thinking, heat... we have dealt with heat for weeks now. But lets turn some attention to the famous Bermuda High.

What is the Bermuda High you might ask, as you will be hearing about it likely over the next few weeks of summer.  The Bermuda High is a permanent weather feature that is situated over the Atlantic Ocean and is usually centered near the island of Bermuda, hence the name.

Lately the weather pattern has shunted this feature off to the south and east, but as the upper level winds relax and become more zonal (meaning a smooth west to east flow) the Bermuda High can set up, as forecast beginning later this weekend.

The Bermuda High is set up all across the Atlantic in this forecast model for July 13, 2011

Wind flows clockwise around the Bermuda high and the Bermuda high is infamous for several things including:

• East Coast Heat
• Drought
• Hurricane Tracks
• "Ring of Fire" Thunderstorms

Under an area of high pressure, air is sinking. So in the atmosphere it is like scouring out an area of weather. During the summer, this area can expand over much of the ocean and encroach inland to the Gulf of Mexico and to the mid West US.

Lets look at the 4 topics pointed out:

East Coast Heat
  Under the western side of a high pressure system, the air is typically warm and more humid. Just looking at the weather map provided above, you can get the sense that a parcel air is traveling from the tropical areas over the warm Gulf of Mexico to pick up more moisture and humidity up the Ohio Valley and into New England to make us warm and humid.

Heat Wave on August 2, 2006 with an intense Bermuda High (See radar from same day below)

Drought
  Under the high, air is sinking, and with that sinking air, clouds have a hard time forming. The air is very stable and  thunderstorms especially cannot form as easily. A persistent Bermuda high can make areas very dry underneath them. As on the map below, look at areas of the Southeast US. You want to imagine the Bermuda High as a bubble umbrella over these areas protecting it from any rain.

The high will act as a dome over the area and scour out any rain or clouds for that matter, increasing the likelihood of droughts.

Hurricane Tracks
  With the Bermuda high in place, a hurricane will follow the periphery of high pressure and it can be easy to forecast where a hurricane may go. Take a look at the typical tracks of hurricanes in the picture and you can see the outline of the Bermuda high. if the Bermuda high is strong the hurricane will track westward into say Texas, or if it is weak may go up to East Coast or even out to sea.

Hurricane tracks with various extents of the Bermuda High. Gilbert in 1988 went into Mexico, Bob in 1991 came up the east coast into New England as did Bertha in 1996.  All going around the Bermuda High.  Please note: I am not forecasting any hurricanes, just to show you examples of what happens.

"Ring of Fire" Thunderstorms
  On the outer periphery of the Bermuda High the air mass clashes with other air at boundaries and can produce thunderstorms that stretch in a ring from Texas to the Great Lakes.

Radar captures the "Ring of Fire" thunderstorms from TX to Michigan and into New England. August 2, 2006. High and dry underneath the high.

7/05/2011 Hot weather remains - Bear Week Preview 4cast!!

We have finally hit that typical summer time pattern in the weather department.  This is usually signified by weaker, local weather activity than the large scale storms that many see during the spring and winter months.  It can make forecasting easy, but at times pinpointing exact weather conditions can be difficult.

Looking ahead a bit to this weekend and next week, the Bermuda high sets in to put summer in full force!

Today will be warm and not as humid as yesterday, with a high of 84. A sea breeze will kick in to cool immediate coastal areas down and make it feel less humid as well.  Areas inland could reach the upper 80s.

Tonight a typical evening thunderstorm is possible, otherwise warm, low of 70.

Wednesday - starts out dry and comfortable, but humidity levels increase throughout the day. Hot with a high near 90.

Thursday  -  chance for rain with an approaching cold front late in the afternoon. humid and warm high of 84.

Friday - a few left over clouds in the morning, otherwise cooler and less humid high of 80.

Sea breeze along the coast on Tuesday afternoon. Hot and increasing humidity on Wednesday

Sat - Mon - Mostly sunny and warm high in the low to mid 80s.

After a brief summer cool down early next week, the heat will return for the end of next week into the weekend.



Sat 7/9 - Sat 7/16 Trends for Provincetown
an overview of the weather for Bear Week.  Fine tuned daily.


Cooler and dry to start, warmer and more humid to end

Sat - Morning clouds slight shower early   77
Sun -  Sunny   78
Mon - A few high clouds late  80
Tue - Morning showers clearing by late afternoon  81
Wed - Cloudy, slight chance of a shower 81
Thr - A few clouds 82
Fri - Partly Sunny  85
Sat - Partly Cloudy, chance of showers 85

7/04/11

 Happy July 4th and Independence Day!

Todays forecast is a perfect summer forecast, especially if you have plans near the beach or lake or on a river!

We are ahead of a cold front which is in NY and PA right now, this keeps us in the warm humid air for the day. Bright sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the 80's with a limited sea breeze, confined to the Cape and Islands.

Today, there is the slight chance for an afternoon shower of thunderstorm, but it will not be wide spread as yesterday. Primarily between 4 and 8 pm.

Temperatures 84 in Boston, 81 at the immediate coastline and 86 inland. 78 on the Cape.

Tuesday - cold front pushes through by mid morning, but acts only to drop the humidity. It should remain dry. The air mass is still very warm, so it will be a few degrees warmer, but much drier in which it will feel more comfortable, a sea breeze will likely kick in after noon to cool down coastal locations.

Wednesday - Friday - typical summer pattern, slightly less humidity, chance for evening showers and Thunderstorms. It will be hot with highs in the upper 80s.

Less humid Tue and Wed, but with a warm air mass in place, night time lows will have a hard time falling especially in the urban heat island of Boston.

7/03/11 Sunday Update.. 4th oveview.

Welcome to summer!!

Humid weather has invaded New England this morning with dew points in the mid 60s this morning.

Clouds will keep temperatures lower today. More sunshine in some areas will boost temperatures some.

Rain showers over Eastern NY and VT and the Berkshires will take its time to reach the Boston area. Some of the data this morning is suggesting that this area of rain will split into to area, one going to Maine and the other south to Connecticut leaving Mass a bit drier.

The thunderstorms that do develop are going to be slow movers so if you are West of the City of Boston or have plans on the Southshore, RI it may be a wetter day with heavy downpours. 

• Northshore, NH a passing thunderstorm as most activity goes south of the region.
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• Cape Cod, relatively dry for most of the day, showers and thunder after 7 pm.
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• Below are the forecast radar/rain images for the day. 

2 PM - Heaviest rain and thunderstorms are in W. Mass, CT and VT for the day.  A small brief shower may develop early and pass through the Boston area to the Cape, but will be short lived.

Rain moves into the Worcester/495 area. Coastal areas and North shore should still be in the clear. Heaviest Thunderstorms should arrive Boston area between 5 & 7 pm

By 8 PM most of the shower activity moves to the Southshore, The Outter Cape remains relatively dry.

Monday Forecast - Foggy start to the morning. Humid. Increasing mid level clouds after 12 pm with a threat for some severe thunderstorms bewteen 4 and 7 pm for Boston. Temperatures in the mid 80s.  Full update tomorrow morning.