5/25/12 We have a little bit of everything for everybody! Even HEAT!

This Memorial Day weekend forecast sounds more like a forecast one would be making for Labor Day.  Many features are happening on the weather maps and I hope to convey some of them to you below.

This mornings satellite image shows many of the features that will play in this weekends weather as well as into next week. For New England and Boston the focus will be on a cold front that will push north of us today and the high pressure over the south. A tropical storm is likely forming off the Carolina coast today. Each detailed below.

1.  The cold front -  This front will actually push well north of New England into Canada today and on the day Saturday, allowing the area of high pressure to the south to nudge in for Saturday and give us a very warm day.  However this cold front sneaks back down from Canada on Saturday night and runs into this large area of high pressure to the south and gets stuck over New England at least until Tuesday.

2.  The Hot High pressure that will bring heat to the south nudges in for one day of warmth on Saturday bringing temperatures into the 80s. However the front eventually comes back through and turns the winds east off the ocean and pushed the hotter air back to the mid Atlantic.

3. Disturbances will ride along the front to bring the chances for showers each day into Tuesday

4. A tropical storm is likely to be forming (out of season) off the coast of the Carolinas.  The weather pattern can actually be seen in its model track being pushed back south into GA/FL by late this weekend and then eventually up the coastline and out to sea by next week.

If you would like to see the Atmosphere in motion, click HERE and push FWD, very fascinating pattern.. You do not need to be a meteorologist to understand. What you are seeing is the flow of the atmosphere and the pressure (weather systems)

5/22/12 RAINachusetts... Yup! More rain. Memorial Day Outlook

Thanks to my friend Mikey for today's headline!  Royalties to come in the mail.

Today's weather map has some great weather features on it, if you are a meteorologist!  Not if you are a fan of sunshine, but have no fear, a big warm up is on the way.

An area of low pressure is slowly tracking up the northeast coast, bringing an east wind to most of NE. This will keep our sky cloudy with scattered showers for most of the day.  The former tropical storm Alberto will track well south of New England and eventually become part of the larger overall low pressure with no impact to land areas.    A cold front will slowly push east and bring the chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Scattered rain will be with us for  most of the day today as bands rotate in around the low over the South Shore

Weekend weather map...  High pressure will build across the South pumping heat into the plains and the Northeast. However, a cold front may be hard to displace. At this time, it is too soon to say whether the Boston area will be in the heat or in the cooler marine air.

With the above statement made, the weekend here in New England will end up sunny and hot or cool with some scattered showers.  As the week progresses, we can evaluate the pattern, right now I will go in the middle and not warm us up and keep a scattered shower possible.

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms are possible into Thursday. A more humid airmass moves in late Thursday in to the weekend.

At this point, most areas will see Sunshine, through the weekend. A possible shower is possible on the Cape on Saturday.

5/16/12 Summer Thunderstorms Possible today

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms are possible today primarily west of Boston in Western and Central MA, NH and northern CT away from the influence of the ocean air. The primary threat today will be hail and strong straight line -bow type winds and heavy rain. As with any severe weather event a tornado cannot be ruled out, but conditions do not favor rotation of storms today.

1 PM today, some thunderstorms may develop along the Northshore. 

A thunderstorm set up today, as the rain will push away from the coast. The factor for how strong the storms across MA will get is when the low clouds break away over New England. With such situation. The sun acts as the energy source to promote thunderstorm growth. The more sun and heating of the day, the stronger the storms can become. Therefore, if the clouds break away along the coastline BEFORE 11-12 today, there is the chance for a pop up, isolated thunderstorm before the main line arrives later this afternoon.

A line of thunderstorms will move out of NY into New England around 4-5 PM today. Heavier storms are also possible in Northern Vermont, NH and Maine as well. A sea breeze will likely keep any severe weather limited along the MA coastline, however a pop up thunderstorm is still possible on the Boston area.  If you are curious you can view the model run here to see a loop 

An image to show where to expect heavy downpours associated with Thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be in Central and Western MA today. The RED indicates the current time give at 7 PM tonight and the Green indicates a time 90 min prior at 530 PM.  Note the BOW echo nearing Worcester. Strong winds could be possible.

After today, a great stretch of sunshine and mild temperatures return through early next week with mild days and cooler dry nights.

5/8/12 A very unsettled weather pattern remains for May

Someone told me yesterday, "Why can't the weather be like it was back in March?"  Remember the stretch of sunshine and warmth.

 May is looking very cool and wet for New England and the pattern does not seem to change in the next 2 weeks. With the exception of this weekend where dry air and some sun will make for a beautiful May weekend.

A main area of low pressure will remain over the Northeast US for much of this week bringing clouds and rain showers into New England. Another area of low pressure over Minnesota (1), will join with this low and keep the clouds and rain around for Wednesday into Thursday. And a 2nd low, over Texas, will track across the south and then up the east coast and bring a chance for heavy rain especially along Eastern Mass Thursday into Friday morning.  High pressure over Montana will move in later Friday into the weekend to bring sunshine and gradually warmer temperatures.

Rainfall forecast up to 6 PM today. Heavy showers will fall across NH and VT, where eastern MA will see roughly 1/4" and the cape only a light shower.  The rain will be around through Friday morning however.

Heavy rain will fall Wednesday into Thursday across Cape Cod where up to 3" of rain could fall total. Boston will likely see up to an inch of rain.

(had to revert for older graphics for today for time)

5/6/12 Lack of posts.. and Wet wet wet...

First of all I would like to apologize for the lack of posts this past week. A new job has limited the time to prepare a forecast properly.

To make a good forecast for this blog, usually takes a minimum of 1 hour and sometimes up to 2 hours PLUS, depending on what is going on. 

So what is going on?   Briefly, the pattern that had been persistent from last Fall, through the winter into early April has shifted and we are now in a flow in which the storm track tends to be directly over us, or even to the south of New England.

It is something I like to refer to as the "roller coaster effect"

You can think of the jet stream as a roller coaster track, with the storms going along. New England just happens to be in the dip of the track so everything just pours into the region, the wet and the cool weather. 

A weak front will help usher in some drier air today on Sunday, but with a lot of moisture in the ground from days of rain, the sun will help produce some clouds before there is enough drier air to overtake the moisture.  The weak stationary front to the south will be a focus for the storm track later this week as mid week looks wet.

4/27/12 Freezing Tonight.. bundle up the plants!

The remnants of the past weeks Nor'Easter will finally be pushing off the Maine coast today, as a cold area of high pressure takes control over the northeast US.

The old Nor"Easter which has kept our weather unsettled over the past week will finally be kicked out to sea today, as a cold area of high pressure moves in!

With cold high pressure moving in overnight tonight, a FREEZE WARNING has been issued for much of Southern New England, except the immediate Boston area, the Cape, Islands and Providence, where Urban Heating and Ocean temperatures will keep temperatures above freezing.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT
TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

Cool, but sunny conditions will prevail for the weekend, and a gradual warm up is 

forecast for next week 

4/24/12 The Aftermath of a Nor"Easter

An unsettled weather pattern will be with us over the next week.  With the passage of the Nor'Easter yesterday, residual clouds and showers will remain for the rest of the week along with some cooler air.

Our weather pattern can be seen on this mornings satellite image. As the low spins over Ontario, it will take several days to move east and will spin in a mix of sun and clouds over New England.

A simplified view of the weather for the next week.  Warm high pressure will keep the south, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley in early Summer warmth, while a small battle zone will set up between New England and the Mid Atlantic and on the north side, cooler weather will prevail as winds come in from Canada. Although it will not be COLD, highs will be normal, near 60 with the chance of passing showers, primarily along the south coast.

Much above normal temps are seen over the Ohio Valley. The Northeast remains near normal.

The week ahead will be tough to forecast when you can expect sunshine and when you can expect a rain shower.