9/02/11 Rain, rain go away!

One of my favorite things as meteorologist (besides hurricanes) is to look at a satellite image. They tell a story.  You could either look at today's image and get a feel for what is going on or you could look at an image from 30 years ago and you could basically tell a story. Satellite information is so valuable.

Today's image shows so much. Including Tropical Storm Katia, TD #13, an area of disturbed weather 94L, a cold front approaching from the plains and an area of High pressure in eastern Canada.  Most of these will have some influence on our weather.

   94L is of no concern for the US as it is moving off toward Newfoundland, but it is producing winds of 50mph and could become a tropical storm at any time
Katia, is expected to become a hurricane again soon, but it does not influence our weather for at least another week.
Of concern now is TD #13 and the frontal system over the plains.  The warm front (in red) will approach New England during the day on Saturday and bring an increase in humidity and warmer temperatures.  The cold front however will have the potential to tap into the moisture associated with the tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico and bring some locally heavy showers to parts of New England for Sunday and Monday.

Tropical systems can hold a lot of moisture, and the forecast for the depression is to drop nearly 20 inches of rain across the Gulf Coast.

The 5 day rainfall forecast.

Of great concern is if this cold front taps into the tropical system, it could bring heavy rains to an already soaked flooded area of New England from Irene. Nearly 4 inches of rain in Vermont, NH and Maine. 1" possible Boston area.  Most of this rain will fall on Sunday into Tuesday.  (The New Orleans area could get hit with up to 20" of rainfall)

Cold fronts act as conveyor belts and can easily transport moisture from far away. Needless to say, some areas in New England will see heavy rain amounts that they just do not need. So it is imperative that those in flood prone areas and areas already hit with flooding take notice to the sky and rainfall.

 

Next week, the forecast will focus on the direction of Katia.

Fill Up Now! Gas Prices rising due to "hurricanes" & Who will get named 1st!

You may want to fill up your car cheap today as gas prices around MA are rising in response to:

1.)  Hurricane Irene -  several refineries in NJ shut down in preparation for Irene.

2.)  A yet to be named (Lee or Maria) tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico may meander over
 the oil platforms for several days up to a week. So they will not be operational.

A side tropical update.  As mentioned the other day,  2 areas may develop in the tropics during the next 24 hours. One in the Gulf of Mexico and one off the US east coast.  Which ever one becomes a tropical storm first gets the name "Lee", then the next name is "Maria".

Hurricane Katia is in the central Atlantic.  My feeling is that #2 will become "Lee" since it already has a circulation center and that # 3 in the Gulf of Mexico will become "Maria".  Many have discussed #3 as being a future "Lee". Just goes to show you how fast things can change in the tropics!

9/01/11 Meteorological Fall is here..

Statistics for Boston for the summer of 2011.

Forecast

Today - A few morning clouds will give way to sunshine. Dry air is still in place for today and tonight with a high of 75.

Tonight - A cool night, low 58. Coldest in the valleys with upper 40s.

Friday - East wind off the ocean will keep temperatures low, in the lower 70s with just a few clouds.  Humidity rises late in the day.

A busy weather map for 9/01.  High pressure in Atlantic Canada will nudge down into New England to bring cooler temperatures today and Friday.  A low pressure area over Minnesota will influence our weather late on Saturday into Monday.  Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical storm and a Low off the east coast of the US will track northeastward and not influence our weather.

Labor Day Weekend Forecast

Saturday looks to be the best of the weekend days with a warm front pushing through early in the morning. This will bring in more humid conditions and temperatures back into the lower 80s. A slight chance of a shower Saturday morning is possible, with some clouds, but not a washout.

Sunday will be cloudy and humid. Showers may pop up on and off throughout the day. A better likelihood in Western Mass. Highs near 80.

Monday is a tricky forecast I must admit.  Either way, it looks like rain, uncertain as to how much. It depends on several factors. A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes during the day on Monday.  Some models tap into moisture from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, which would bring more rainfall. Some do not connect, but bring in scattered storms. Another model brings an area of low pressure up the coast ahead of the front.

So for now I will just say, it is going to rain on Monday and continue into Tuesday.

Tropical Outlook

Katia is a hurricane in the mid Atlantic Ocean and will still be north east of Puerto Rico on Labor Day.  A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could become Lee and bring much needed rain and cooler temperatures from Florida to Texas during the weekend. An area of low pressure off the east coast, could develop into a tropical cyclone and move near or past Newfoundland.  What could become Lee, may stick around in the Gulf of Mexico for many days.

8/31/11 The Dog Days are over..

As August comes to a close, the weather sure feels more like September than anything with cool night and refreshing days.  The week ahead still looks on track to be dry, however a series of fronts and tropical systems will begin to affect our weather come late Sunday and into next week.

Today - Mostly sunny, a few high clouds especially in VT and NH from a dying storm in the Great Lakes. Expect low dew points and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Today looks to be a great day all around

No changes in the week ahead. A full weekend outlook will be issued tomorrow.

Tropical Outlook -  Seeing some concern for next week as several tropical systems indirectly play a role in the New England weather. It is too early to say where and what will be happening, however one scenario that is playing out is a situation that occurred in 1985 and in 2005. 

It is too early to get into detail now about it, because things will likely change and since none of the models that meteorologist use are in agreement, why scare any body. For me, it is just to let you be aware that it may be a bit wet next week.

8/30/11 Great fall-like week ahead, showers late this weekend.

Sunshine and comfortable temperatures will be in the forecast until Saturday when increasing clouds arrive ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Sunday and Monday.


Today thru  Friday Morning - Cool high pressure will be in control.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dry dew points.  Friday morning will be the coolest morning of the season across the area.

Wednesday High Temperatures   Warmest in Metro West Boston.

A hint of FALL, expected morning lows on Friday.  Some valley locations will be cooler.

 Friday - Warmer air moves in from the west ahead of a front that will reach us late on Saturday or Sunday. It will still be sunny, just slightly more humid.


Labor Day Weekend -  Increasing clouds during the day on Saturday and more humid with highs in the 80s. Rain arrives late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Sunday looks to be dry, but inbetween storms.  Monday, a cold front arrives and will bring showers and storms across the region.

Tropical Outlook

Tropical Storm Katia out in the eastern Atlantic will continue to track to the west and be near the northern Leeward Islands by Labor Day.

2. A tropical disturbance will move into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly develop and bring the Gulf coast region from Texas to Florida a chance for much needed  rain.  It appears that the system may just sit over water for many days.

3. A cold front (the one that Irene rode against), could develop a low pressure during the next few days and track into Atlantic Canada.

8/29/11 Good bye Irene, Hello Refeshing Cool Dry Weather!

Irene is gone - after a lot of hype, it did live up to a devastating tropical cyclone for a lot of New England.  Here are some regional impacts from the storm.

More info will be provided later during the week.

Today - Strong winds from the Northwest will die down today as Irene moves into Atlantic Canada. Irene is no longer a tropical storm.

Monday morning satellite showing Irene over Quebec and New Brunswick. Winds will come in from the north west today and be dry and clear for the day.

Much drier air will be with us for most of the week, with dew points in the 40s and 50s and highs in the upper 70's.  Some cool spots will drop into the upper 40s overnight tonight. Needless to say, you will not need your air conditioner this week!