Spooky Bear - Strong Cold Nor'Easter Possible

Just a heads up, there is the potential for a very strong nor'easter to move up the coast next Friday night into the day on Saturday bringing in cold air, heavy rain and wind and the chance for snow is even possible.

This of course can change, but indications are for at least a return to late autumn weather by the end of next week, with temperatures in the lower 40s.

10/18/11 Less Sun time, then some heavy rain..

Fall can bring some great beauty to the landscape around us, but for many it can be offset by the fact the days are much noticeably shorter. Today was just one of those days when the sunrise and sunset fell close or near the top of the hour.

In our weather a weak disturbance will move through during the early hours bringing some clouds, but will also begin to clear out as the afternoon progresses.

Then a storm gathering some strength over the MS River valley (2) will pick up Gulf moisture (3) from a tropical disturbance and strengthen into a potent nor'easter during the day on Wednesday.

Rainfall will be heavy during the afternoon and overnight Wednesday with localized flooding possible again. 2-3 inches of rain could fall with this storm.

The track of the low is seen nicely in the spread of rainfall across the eastern seaboard.

Wind will also be a factor in our weather during the day Wednesday with winds sustained 15 - 25 mph and a few higher gusts from the Northeast.

10/17/11 Seasonably warm followed by storm!

A weak and fast moving front pushed through New England overnight, bringing a few scattered showers. This front will clear the Cape by mid morning as the sun has already returned to Boston .

Temperatures will be above normal today climbing to near 70.

Tuesday will be sunny, but a developing winter type storm over the Rockies (1) will dig south and pick up a developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico (2)

2 Weather systems will affect our weather mid week!

The two storms will likely become one larger storm, at this time I do not see the tropical storm surviving here to New England, but instead combining to become a very strong warm nor'easter bringing very heavy rainfall to area.**

Such a tropical influence could bring over 3" of rain to some areas on ground that has been soaked by Irene, Lee and other storms this year.

A combined effort of a winter type storm with a tropical storm will bring in strong winds and heavy rain to New England.

Right now there are several ideas as to how this storm will evolve and how much of the tropical storm will remain.

Sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend ahead!

** Meteorology Note: Development of a Nor'Easter

In a typical nor'easter storm, usually a weak low will drop out of either Alberta or the Rockies, perhaps bring some light precipitation.

Weak Low Pressure is over the Rockies and TX

The low will track east with still little in the way of strength

The low moves into the Mississippi River Valley

The low begins to get moisture, a source of energy from the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico and the temperature contrast from the cooler air digging in from Canada. A tropical storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico (not typical)

The low moves into TN, and starts to bring warmer air north and colder air in behind it.

The original low moves up the Appalachians, whereas the tropical storm moves into Florida. This is when the two storms begin to combine their energy. Of note, if the tropical storm was not there, in a normal nor'easter situation, a coastal low would have formed near this location as energy is transferred from the original low to a more efficient energy source, the ocean.

The original low hangs back out over WV, OH and western PA. This usually produces light precipitation, however, the main low is now the ocean or coastal low, in this case a combined energy from the tropical low and the temperature contrast,at this time the tropical low is no longer tropical. But will have a lot of moisture with it.

By the end of the cycle, the low original low is now lost or weakened into the major circulation of the major nor'easter as it continues to strengthen.