Do you remember a time when you turned on the news and all you saw were the most important headlines of the day. Breaking News really meant that something major had happened. Or perhaps you trusted the people giving you the news, because there was a time when you thought, if they are telling me this, then it has to be important and why would they lie or make it up.
Well, in the weather world there was a time when you could not even mention the word tornado in a forecast or to qualify as a major storm, you better be getting a foot of snow! Sadly in today's world we are faced with increasing hype and sensationalism of the news and this includes the weather. Now I am not knocking any person directly, but more or less want to give you what I feel is the argument of hype versus awareness.
My example today will be an area of low pressure deep in the tropical Atlantic. It does not have a name yet, however it is something that many meteorologists are watching. Why? Well as we enter into August and September, those are historically the most active months for hurricanes, which can produce very destructive hurricanes stretching from Canada to Florida, Texas to the islands of the Caribbean.
It has always been my thought that people should be aware of what is going on around them. This could apply to every day life, but in this case, just knowing that a tropical storm or hurricane may be forming just puts it in the back of your head that may say, "hey, this is out there and if need be, I know what to do". Even if it tracks harmlessly out to sea. You were aware.
Now take some modern media places and other sites. They would have you believe that perhaps this storm is going to be the "one" and we must go into panic mode with loud music, breaking news coverage that this "May be the storm to hit New England, or even Florida!!" Followed by the words "It is too soon to tell where it may track".
This brings me to my point, I never want to scare anybody with a forecast, unless I know with certainty that a hurricane or tornado or 3 feet of snow IS going to bear down on you. My point with any forecast it to make you aware of what is out there and, if this entity which is being called Invest 91L does become a threat, then the hype is necessary.
We can only look to last year here in New England, the name was Earl. Hurricane Warnings were up and continuing coverage ensued as if we were going to be struck with a storm like no other. Except for a few wind gusts and some light rain. Earl was a joke and now this year, I am sure if a hurricane really does threaten New England, may will think "well Earl did nothing..." So being aware is one thing, but you can surely over do it with hype.
So with my example of Invest 91L, what do I have to say about it in my forecast. I will say, it is out there, deep in the tropics. Many variables are going into a forecast now and yes it is way to soon to tell exactly where it is going, however I can be certain that Islands in the Caribbean will likely see the first affects of this storm Tuesday into Wednesday. After this the track widens greatly.
An example would be: You are going to take a trip "aimlessly", and you want us to meet next weekend. You know you will be somewhere. You may end up in New Orleans, Dallas, Oklahoma or Iowa. However right now you can not tell me were to meet you exactly. Do I really want to plan my trip NOW to go meet you, or wait a few days until you are more certain as to where you will be. At least though you told me you might be near some of those locations so I could have a very general idea as to where to go. That is what a hurricane forecast is like, this far out.
Unlike a tornado which is almost instant and with a few minutes of warning, a hurricane will give you hours and days notice that it is coming.
If I could tell you the exact track of a hurricane every time, I would be rich!!
