10/28/2011 Winter Storm is coming, Boston to see some snow!

The first snow of the 2011-12 Winter Season came and went in the Boston area last night. Officially a trace of snow fell. With areas in higher elevations receiving up to 3" in some areas.

Also, officially at Boston, (and at my house) the temperature never fell below 32F (0C),  Boston 35.1, my house 32.4, so the growing season is officially still going in the immediate Boston area. Some frost was noticeable on some car surfaces, which can cool below freezing faster than the air.

Friday's weather looks to be cool, but sunny thanks to high pressure moving in overhead for the day, this cool high will stay parked over the Northeast until Saturday morning. Expect a high temperature today around 48, with a brisk northwest wind 10-15 mph.


Friday night - It will be clear and cold, however closer to the coast temperatures will not fall below freezing, but away from the coast, expect another hard freeze and frost by early morning. Boston will see a low of 35, outside of 128/95 around 28.

With the growing season still in effect, I will continue to give a detailed update on the Freeze Line so you can plan for your vegetation accordingly. Once all of the region has fallen below 32F, this map will no longer be given until the spring.

Saturday - a major coastal storm will form off the NC/VA coast during the morning hours and track up the coast, just south of Cape Cod.  Winter storm watches are in effect from Virginia to Maine!

A winter storm watch means that snow could fall in excess of 5-7 inches.

 

 

Storm Impacts:

Wind:  It will be windy, especially along the coast and Cape. Gusts as high as 50 mph could be expected on the cape with 30-35 mph along the Bay shore. This storm will Bomb out, or Bombogenesis (an official meteorological term - meaning the pressure will drop from 1000mb to 976mb in under 24 hours)  The storm will take on the appearance of a hurricane perhaps as it moves away from New England.

Snow:  With an east wind to begin off of the warmer Atlantic ocean, the storm will produce rain for the coastal areas and snow will begin to fall inland. However as cold air wraps into the storm (similar to last nights storm) the snow will filter in to the Boston area.  The video below shows the rate and times of the potential snowfall.

Map of potential snow. Rain will fall along the immediate coast, rain will mix with snow then turn to snow from Boston north in the Purple.

Snowfall Amount Forecast as of 10AM Friday

Spooky Bear Forecast

This years Spooky Bear Forecast in Provincetown will unfortunately be on the wet, cold  and windy side. No snow for the outer cape!

Friday appears to be dry, but chilly with an afternoon high of 48.

Friday night, clear and cold with a low of 39, a north wind around 10 mph will  make it feel as cold as 35 degrees.

Saturday, sunshine to start the day, then clouds will increase as a possible major storm develops off the VA coast and tracks just south of Cape Cod.  Rain should arrive in Provincetown around 2-4 PM, as the low begins to strengthen wind speed will increase throughout the day. The high will be 48. East wind 10-15 mph, increasing as the evening progresses.

Saturday night -  temperatures remain in the lower 40s,but with a strong gusty north wind, it will feel like 36. Depending on the track of this storm, winds could gust as high as 40 mph with heavy rain showers.

Sunday - The storm quickly pulls away from the coast and with sunshine returning after 11 AM. A gusty north wind will make the temperature of 50 feel like 40!

Saturday Sunrise 7:09 AM  Sunset 5:39 PM

Weather features for the weekend. Possible snow in white, with heavy snows possible in the blue areas. A mix in the purple and rain in green. Amounts are not yet known.  If the low tracks to the north as in the orangish red color, the greater the effects of the storm and the amount of precipitation that falls.  The red low is a likely track which would be less significant but still bring some snow showers, but not as heavy. The light 3L, is one model that does take the low far south without ANY impact for New England, this seem unlikely at this time.

10/27/2011 Snow, Freezes and Storms - Oh My!

The weather over the next several days will be a wonderful mess and our first taste of WINTER!

Today- A front has stalled just south of New England today, a wave of low pressure will track along this front today bringing in showers with cool temperatures.  As the low passes to the east later today the wind flow around the low will shift to the north and west and will pull down much cooler air from Canada.

Morning temperatures showing colder air north in NH and VT pushing in south.  A Freeze Watch is in effect for coastal New England in WHITE.  Green indicates a coastal flood advisory.

Tonight - Colder, below freezing air works in to much of New England tonight, and will first change and rain showers will mix with snow then change to all snow by late tonight as the low exits the coast.  Snow may be seen flying around Boston late tonight, but it will be the higher elevations above 1000 feet that will see a light accumulation.

Snowfall potential tonight. Areas in white will see accumulations. Areas in BLUE will see snow fall, but not likely stick or become a slushy mess on the grass and car tops. Purple areas will see a few flakes mixed in without any issues.

 Frost/Freeze  Also, the temperature will drop below freezing over the metro Boston area. There has not been a frost or freeze in this area yet this fall, so the growing season is still in effect. Areas closest to the coast may hover around freezing where other areas may be in the 20s.  This means you should tend to all plants and vegetation that needs protection from the cold. This will be what is called an advective freeze, meaning the cold air is being pushed in (similar to a walk in freezer with fans) and frost cannot form. That is why it may freeze even at the coast  However it will be calm on Friday night, which will result in a radiational freeze ( the warm air escapes back into the atmosphere and is replaced by cold air at the surface). Coastal areas are protected by the warm ocean.

Overnight low temperatures, The red line marks the freezing line, which will hug the immediate coastline from Gloucester South, Boston could flirt with the freezing mark for a few hours. The Cape and Islands and South coast will remain above Freezing tonight.

Friday - Cool High pressure moves in for a sunny day but chilly. Frost and freezing likely at night.



Saturday  - Another storm exits the coast and will likely track south of New England, but it will likely throw some moisture and wind to parts of Southern New England on Saturday.

More on this storm in a later post today with a P-town forecast as well!

10/26/11 Early snow, Freeze & Weekend Storm??

A weak weather system is pushing through the north east this morning, bringing light showers and possibly a mix in the highest elevations of MA and NH.  This will be with us for most of the day, with a steadier rain to fall later this afternoon.

The scattered showers over southern PA will reach us by this afternoon. Pink areas show possible mixed precipitation.

This is ahead of a much cooler air mass that will plunge south and bring our warm autumn temperatures to an end.

The weather systems that will have an impact on our weather. 1) The disturbance that will push through today and bring light rain.  2) The disturbance that will push through Thursday and Thursday night to bring a chance of rain and snow. 3) The weekend disturbance that could be a major coastal storm. and RINA should have minimal impact on our weather.

Thursday - A fast moving storm now over the plains will exit the coast and develop into a moderate storm. At the same time it will pull down colder air from Canada and drop temperatures below freezing in many areas that will promote some snow flakes to fall late Thursday into early Friday morning.

Snow map for late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The lightest areas with a red surrounding could expect to see a light accumulation of snowfall.  All other areas in the BLUE color will likely see some snowflakes and maybe a dusting on some cooler surfaces but not accumulation expected, PURPLEs, perhaps just a passing flake. Coastal areas south of Boston and the Cape will be too warm for any snow to form.

Friday we are inbetween storms, however cold air will be overhead and with a clear night and cold air many areas that have not seen a frost or a killing freeze will likely see temperatures fall below freezing over much of New England, except right at the coast.

Weekend - The potential remains for a strong nor'easter to form. The current track is a bit south of New England, but some models do bring it closer and with cold air in place still, snow could fall once again, however heavy rain could be a possibility from the south coast to the Cape with strong gusty winds. More to come on this system tomorrow.

10/24/11 Say it isn't SNOW!

The tranquil weather that has been over New England will come to a sharp end this Wednesday as a coastal storm tracks up the coast.  This low will track south of New England and bring some rain showers  north of it on Thursday night and Friday.  However , the storm will drag in much colder air as it exits the coast. Some of the end precipitation may end as some wet snowflakes with some areas seeing a possible dusting of snow. Not likely in Boston, but if enough cold air works in a few flakes may be seen.

One models output for the potential for snow. The Worcester hills could see a light accumulation. I feel it will be too warm in the Boston area to see any accumulation from this weak storm.

Then, with some colder air in place, another storm, which a majority of the weather models develop a storm of the DelMarVa and bring the possibility of a major coastal storm to New England Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  The air will be cold enough that some of the early models are predicting an early snowfall for much of New England.

The storm may take on a bit of a tropical feature with a calm center passing over Cape Cod late Saturday into Sunday, however, winds around the storm could gust as high as 60mph +

Surface map for 7AM Sunday morning showing a 980mb low over Cape Cod. (981 is the threshold for a Category 1 hurricane)

Winds could be as high as 60mph along the New England coast Sunday morning (in purple)

And yes, it will be cold enough for the possibility of a snowstorm away from the coastline. This model is putting out a swath of 5" snows from Concord NH to Maine and a 4" swatch along 495. Lesser at the coast and none from the southshore to the Cape.

 This forecast is likely to change some, but the models are coming into agreement that there will likely be a strong storm coming this weekend with colder air.

10/23/11 Sunday sun.. then a world of changes

One of the inevitable aspects of late autumn is the fact that the number of warm days are few and far between whereas you can start to assume it is going to be cooler with some down right chilly days.

There is usually a week in the weather where the transition really becomes pronounced and this week will be that week. We will see temperatures in the 60's this week, but will struggle to get out of the 40s by weeks end.  If we do not hit 50 it will be the first time to not get out of the 40s since April 20.

The remainder of the week will feature small pulses of weather that will end up with a digging trough of colder air by the weekend for much of the east coast as colder air building in Canada will make its first major surge southward.

By Friday the colder air surges south and an overall cooling takes place

A stormy weather pattern is setting, right now a strong storm could track up the coastline during the late week to bring some rain and wind and may continue into the early weekend.

Interior parts and higher elevations may get some snow.