9/3/12 - Tropical Impacts for New England - Next Week.

1st -  Let me apologize for being absent for much of the summer. I have been embarking on a new career path that has taken up a lot of my time. However, I still would like to present important weather information seems appropriate to you, however, at this time a daily forecast cannot be made. When the business aspect takes off, then I hope to be able to do a little bit of both!

2nd - The time has come to update you a possible impact from Tropical Cyclone Leslie.

An interesting meteorological pattern may be setting up, one that we saw in 1989. 

Hurricane Leslie is expected to pass near Bermuda later this week. Typically this track means clear sailing for much of the United States coastline and only a threat to Atlantic Canada.

However, some changes are occurring that are having some meteorologists rethink the eventual track of Leslie.

A trough of low pressure that was forecast to develop and pick up and kick Leslie out to sea, will appear to be actually closing off over the Southeast US.   This will act, instead of a kicker, as a pull system and pull Leslie closer to the US Coast.

As was the case with hurricane Hugo in 1989, the track, not seen brought the hurricane in on a direct path into SC.    This will not be a Hugo, however, what I am seeing is a storm that could be pulled closer to the US coast as it passes by Bermuda, an unusual pattern.  This has been coming to light throughout the day today.  

The worst case scenario now could be that Leslie tracks very close to the Outer Cape (Cod) on Tuesday of next week as a very strong hurricane. Some models are bringing this to a Category 4 near Bermuda.   The track could change of course, and I will keep you posted on any changes!   The least worrisome at this moment will still possibly bring some windy conditions to eastern New England, high seas and a possible shower closest to the coast.

Model Weather Map for Tuesday, Sept 11, 2012..  Leslie is very close to Cape Cod in a worst case scenario.  This may change, but it is something to watch.