11/5/11 Cape Cod Ocean Effect - Turn Your Clocks Back!

This morning is bright and sunny for most of the northeast, except for Cape Cod, were the wind flow is such that ocean effect clouds are forming and spreading over the Cape and Southshore of Mass. Moisture content is low and no precipitation is falling.

Close up of the Cape with Ocean Effect cloud streaks

This is the same process as Lake Effect snow over the Great Lake and usually occurs as cooler air streams over the warmer waters.  You can see these streams forming just south of Maine.

Ocean Effect streams extend for hundreds of miles. Notice the stream extending from Penobscot Bay, Maine and the white dot in NH is Mt Washington.

Remember to turn your clocks back tonight 1 hour at 2:00 AM!!

11/4/11 Warming up! Sean??

The tranquil weather pattern will hold through the weekend with a moderating trend in the temperature department. Expect "Indian Summer" conditions Monday and Tuesday as highs reach the mid to upper 60s.

There could be a "Sean" to track in the Atlantic next week... May bring rain late next week.

High pressure will build to the south allowing air from Texas reach New England by early next week, boosting our temperatures into the 60s! Cold Air will be held back in the upper Mid-west until late next week. A possible tropical storm may form east of the Bahamas and meet with a front late next week to bring rain to New England.

11/2/11 A quiet week & Franklin's Storm 1743

This week will feature tranquil weather with high pressure in control for at least the next 5-7 days. A weak dry front will push temperatures lower this weekend, but will rebound to above normal reading by early next week.

High pressure will keep New England dry for the next few days. A storm in Colorado, which is bringing snow to that area will split into two, going north and south of us.

Franklin's Storm!

Think back to a time when weather was just thought to happen in one place, almost pop up and die down at one location or move with the prevailing surface wind flow.  That is how most meteorologists/scientists thought back in the 18th century.

On November 2, 1743, a full eclipse of the moon was predicted, and Benjamin Franklin was eager to see the eclipse from his home in Philadelphia.

However as  the afternoon wore on, the sky darkened and what appeared to be a hurricane bore down on the east coast, and Philadelphia was struck with heavy rain and high winds from the northeast. At the time it was thought that such a storm, which had happened in the past, must have come down from the northeast! Franklin never saw the eclipse.

He wrote his brother in Boston of his disappointment and assumed that since the storm came in from the northeast, that his brother also missed the eclipse. However in later letters and newspaper accounts, the people of Boston observed the eclipse which would have occurred at the same time,  but was then followed by a 'terrible storm with great tides and a northeast wind'.

Franklin noticed the difference in the time between the onset of the storm in Philadelphia and Boston and believed that it indeed was the same storm. However, he rationed that the storm must have moved in a curve, against the prevailing winds from the southwest to the northeast. (Note: is was not until the 1800's that the term cyclone was adapted and used to describe a circular wind storm, therefore the counterclockwise motion of the wind around a hurricane was not fully understood during Franklin's time)

Franklin's Storm. It was thought all storms moved with the wind. So a northeast wind would bring a storm from the northeast (Boston to Philadelphia). However Franklin observed Philadelphia was onset first by the storm then Boston by using the time of an eclipse of the moon. He rationed that the storm had to of moved from the southwest to the northeast. Inset: It was not clear that storms had winds in a counter clockwise motion.

 
This changed the course of weather forecasting significantly, especially along the eastern seaboard and Franklin helped establish the what would become known as the "law of storm motion".

11/1/11 November Weather and Storm Misses!

Here it is, November 1st! Another month of transition for the Boston area. Warm autumn days can be mixed with wet snowy sub-freezing days. (as if we did not see that last month)

The average low drops to just above freezing, with many nights falling below. Significant weather events occurred in November. Daylight Saving Time end the first Sunday of the month.  Sunshine falls from 10hr 20min to 9hr 20min.

Freeze/Frost - Technically in the Boston area and along the immediate coastline +/- 1 to 2 miles the temperature has yet to fall below freezing, therefore some plants and vegetation still need protection from any frosts or freezes.


Today - A developing coastal storm will track south of us today and out to sea only bringing some clouds this morning to the area as high pressure builds in for the week with seasonable temperatures. The quiet weather will remain for much of the week.

Storms do not appear to impact our weather until next week! A great week to finalize fall cleanup, clear out gardens or watch the snow melt depending on your location!

Three areas of High Pressure are keeping a coastal low south of New England and will direct it east, out to sea. These highs will be in control of our weather for the next several days.

10/28/2011 Winter Storm is coming, Boston to see some snow!

The first snow of the 2011-12 Winter Season came and went in the Boston area last night. Officially a trace of snow fell. With areas in higher elevations receiving up to 3" in some areas.

Also, officially at Boston, (and at my house) the temperature never fell below 32F (0C),  Boston 35.1, my house 32.4, so the growing season is officially still going in the immediate Boston area. Some frost was noticeable on some car surfaces, which can cool below freezing faster than the air.

Friday's weather looks to be cool, but sunny thanks to high pressure moving in overhead for the day, this cool high will stay parked over the Northeast until Saturday morning. Expect a high temperature today around 48, with a brisk northwest wind 10-15 mph.


Friday night - It will be clear and cold, however closer to the coast temperatures will not fall below freezing, but away from the coast, expect another hard freeze and frost by early morning. Boston will see a low of 35, outside of 128/95 around 28.

With the growing season still in effect, I will continue to give a detailed update on the Freeze Line so you can plan for your vegetation accordingly. Once all of the region has fallen below 32F, this map will no longer be given until the spring.

Saturday - a major coastal storm will form off the NC/VA coast during the morning hours and track up the coast, just south of Cape Cod.  Winter storm watches are in effect from Virginia to Maine!

A winter storm watch means that snow could fall in excess of 5-7 inches.

 

 

Storm Impacts:

Wind:  It will be windy, especially along the coast and Cape. Gusts as high as 50 mph could be expected on the cape with 30-35 mph along the Bay shore. This storm will Bomb out, or Bombogenesis (an official meteorological term - meaning the pressure will drop from 1000mb to 976mb in under 24 hours)  The storm will take on the appearance of a hurricane perhaps as it moves away from New England.

Snow:  With an east wind to begin off of the warmer Atlantic ocean, the storm will produce rain for the coastal areas and snow will begin to fall inland. However as cold air wraps into the storm (similar to last nights storm) the snow will filter in to the Boston area.  The video below shows the rate and times of the potential snowfall.

Map of potential snow. Rain will fall along the immediate coast, rain will mix with snow then turn to snow from Boston north in the Purple.

Snowfall Amount Forecast as of 10AM Friday

Spooky Bear Forecast

This years Spooky Bear Forecast in Provincetown will unfortunately be on the wet, cold  and windy side. No snow for the outer cape!

Friday appears to be dry, but chilly with an afternoon high of 48.

Friday night, clear and cold with a low of 39, a north wind around 10 mph will  make it feel as cold as 35 degrees.

Saturday, sunshine to start the day, then clouds will increase as a possible major storm develops off the VA coast and tracks just south of Cape Cod.  Rain should arrive in Provincetown around 2-4 PM, as the low begins to strengthen wind speed will increase throughout the day. The high will be 48. East wind 10-15 mph, increasing as the evening progresses.

Saturday night -  temperatures remain in the lower 40s,but with a strong gusty north wind, it will feel like 36. Depending on the track of this storm, winds could gust as high as 40 mph with heavy rain showers.

Sunday - The storm quickly pulls away from the coast and with sunshine returning after 11 AM. A gusty north wind will make the temperature of 50 feel like 40!

Saturday Sunrise 7:09 AM  Sunset 5:39 PM

Weather features for the weekend. Possible snow in white, with heavy snows possible in the blue areas. A mix in the purple and rain in green. Amounts are not yet known.  If the low tracks to the north as in the orangish red color, the greater the effects of the storm and the amount of precipitation that falls.  The red low is a likely track which would be less significant but still bring some snow showers, but not as heavy. The light 3L, is one model that does take the low far south without ANY impact for New England, this seem unlikely at this time.

10/27/2011 Snow, Freezes and Storms - Oh My!

The weather over the next several days will be a wonderful mess and our first taste of WINTER!

Today- A front has stalled just south of New England today, a wave of low pressure will track along this front today bringing in showers with cool temperatures.  As the low passes to the east later today the wind flow around the low will shift to the north and west and will pull down much cooler air from Canada.

Morning temperatures showing colder air north in NH and VT pushing in south.  A Freeze Watch is in effect for coastal New England in WHITE.  Green indicates a coastal flood advisory.

Tonight - Colder, below freezing air works in to much of New England tonight, and will first change and rain showers will mix with snow then change to all snow by late tonight as the low exits the coast.  Snow may be seen flying around Boston late tonight, but it will be the higher elevations above 1000 feet that will see a light accumulation.

Snowfall potential tonight. Areas in white will see accumulations. Areas in BLUE will see snow fall, but not likely stick or become a slushy mess on the grass and car tops. Purple areas will see a few flakes mixed in without any issues.

 Frost/Freeze  Also, the temperature will drop below freezing over the metro Boston area. There has not been a frost or freeze in this area yet this fall, so the growing season is still in effect. Areas closest to the coast may hover around freezing where other areas may be in the 20s.  This means you should tend to all plants and vegetation that needs protection from the cold. This will be what is called an advective freeze, meaning the cold air is being pushed in (similar to a walk in freezer with fans) and frost cannot form. That is why it may freeze even at the coast  However it will be calm on Friday night, which will result in a radiational freeze ( the warm air escapes back into the atmosphere and is replaced by cold air at the surface). Coastal areas are protected by the warm ocean.

Overnight low temperatures, The red line marks the freezing line, which will hug the immediate coastline from Gloucester South, Boston could flirt with the freezing mark for a few hours. The Cape and Islands and South coast will remain above Freezing tonight.

Friday - Cool High pressure moves in for a sunny day but chilly. Frost and freezing likely at night.



Saturday  - Another storm exits the coast and will likely track south of New England, but it will likely throw some moisture and wind to parts of Southern New England on Saturday.

More on this storm in a later post today with a P-town forecast as well!