Good morning Irene

I did not have time this morning to get a good forecast or thoughts together, so instead. I will post what the NWS in Boston has said about Irene. Very good thoughts.

***HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND TO
SOME DEGREE BUT ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN***

THIS WEEKEND...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT ITS TRACK AND AFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.  WE ARE
STILL MORE THAN 96 HOURS AWAY FROM A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT FROM
IRENE.  THINK ABOUT ALL THE NOREASTERS OVER THE WINTER AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND IMPACTS EVEN INSIDE 60 HOURS.  THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR HEAVY RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER
FLOODING...ALONG WITH STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A STORM SURGE
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IRENE WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THE MODELS IN TWO GENERAL CAMPS.
THE FIRST GROUP IS CLUSTERED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO CT...WHILE
THE SECOND GROUP IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE/ISLANDS.  THEN
THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT ARE EVEN FURTHER WEST AND/OR EAST OF
THE TWO MAIN GROUPS.  IT IS EVIDENT THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN EASTWARD
SHIFT AMONGST THE 00Z GUIDANCE.  WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR IF ITS JUST A MODEL
ADJUSTMENT.

THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO POINT TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY IRENE
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS BEHAVING
AS A CLASSIC TROPICAL SYSTEM IN OUR REGION.  THAT MEANS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN/SIGNIFICANT FRESH WATER FLOODING
WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST STORM SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER.  NOW JUST BECAUSE YOU END UP TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK
DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOUR OUT OF THE WOODS FOR SOME COASTAL
FLOODING...THE ISSUES WOULD JUST BE WORST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.  ESPECIALLY SINCE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WERE GOING
TO SEE VERY HIGH SEAS AND SWELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IRENE WILL IMPACT IN SOMEWAY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WORST IF A TRACK FURTHER
WEST VERIFIES WITH LESSER IMPACTS IF THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS VERIFY
EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.  THERE IS EVEN A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE EAST WOULD CONFINE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 00Z GUIDANCE DID MAKE AN EASTWARD SHIFT
SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR WAS JUST AN
ADJUSTMENT.

FORECAST DETAILS THIS WEEKEND...
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK...IT DOES APPEAR THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR
A PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMETIME SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING AHEAD OF IRENE INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...PLENTY OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF IRENE ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DID SHOW A TREND
EASTWARD.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SUN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/SIGNIFICANT
FRESH WATER FLOODING...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL FLOODING.  AGAIN...WHILE IRENE WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION TO SOME DEGREE IT WOULD BE WORST IF THE TRACK ENDS UP IN THE
WESTERN ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS.