11/3/12 Potential Severe Nor'Easter to impact Sandy areas

A significant Nor'easter is shaping up for later mid week.

Right now it is too early to say the direct impacts, here are some details.

• Significant Snow in New England
• Light Snow in Boston, NYC
• Coastal Flooding possible
• Winds - Gale to Storm force possible  (30-60mph)

The weather map for 7 PM Wednesday showing a strong storm south of Cape Cod.  Colors on this map indicate wind speed. A strong North East wind will impact New England with high gusts and strong waves prompting some coastal flooding.

SNOWFALL

The first significant snow will fall across the higher terrain of New England with over a foot possible in the Berkshires.

I would not yet be confident in an exact forecast, but take with this the following:

• Purple -  general coating to 3"
• Blues - 3-6"
• Oranges - 6-12"
• Deep red - Over a foot"

Also, Sunday night will feature a widespread freeze across ALL the Boston area, Expect any remaining outside plants to freeze and if you have yet to do so, prepare for winter now.

10/26/12 Please take serious read about Sandy

I know you want to know where Sandy is going and what will happen for you?

There are 2 main scenarios as to where Sandy is going to go.

2.  Sandy makes a very hard left toward the NJ, Delmarva coast. ( discussed later)

1.  Sandy still turns left, but gets a bit further north and tracks WEST along the Southern
     New England coast.


Lets take a look at # 1.   (for my MA friends)

This idea scares me so much.  Most everyone reading this will not even be able to comprehend what could happen in this type of situation. 

 

Hurricane Sandy in this scenario runs up the coast but come back west toward the SE Massachusetts coastline by 8 AM Tuesday morning. 

Sandy then either skirts the south coast into Long Island or NYC. What is frightening is that in all of history, most hurricanes are coming at New England from the south and moving Northeast.  Sandy will NOT be doing this

Sandy will be coming at New England from the North West.  The worst part of Sandy will be her right front quadrant relative to storm motion. Wind will pile waves

For Boston tho:

• Possibly 6 hours + of hurricane force winds ( Green area)
• Coastal Storm Surge 3-6 feet. Cat 1 or 2.
• Waves 30+feet 
• Rainfall 

If you are concerned about where you live, check out the maps at this link http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/nhp/HESfacts.cfml?pgid=109

each town, or region is mapped out to show you the effects of storm surge in your area. Prepare now!!  

Winds -  the scariest situation I am seeing is both storm surge and WIND.   One of the computer models is suggesting that 115 mph wind speeds will be just above the surface (indicated in the browns on the map below)  Since Sandy will not be in a true tropical state, these winds could mix down to the surface at any given time.   Note too the wind field with Sandy it HUGE!   Gales extend from South Carolina to Nova Scotia and back to Ohio and Ontario!

If you want to see what Sandy could be capable of doing, watch this video from 1938.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b21g-5YBLs

Follow these tips to prepare yourself.

http://www.mass.gov/eopss/agencies/mema/mema-offers-tips-as-hurricane-sandy-approaches.html

10/22/12 Halloween Storm Sandy

There is some hype going on about the potential for a major storm event to take place beginning later this week.

Right now, an area of low pressure is developing over the Caribbean Sea.

The low will be slow to move northward and will be in the Bahama's , later this weekend. If named it will be Sandy.

For New England - the weekend looks sunny and mild.

Then next Monday - all of the east coast from North Carolina to New England needs to prepare for a late season, prolonged deluge storm. 

Interestingly, the GFS ( a computer model) has a Grace/Perfect Storm set up this morning. With a Nor'easter developing over New England, ingesting the moisture from what could be Sandy.

Although it looks not as mennacing as what will follow, the models keep this low/Sandy spinning off the New England coast for 6 days. This could bring a lot of wind, erosion and more.

A more intense situation lies in several other model outputs showing Sandy tracking up the east Coast.  The Nor'Easter still develops, but instead, keeps Sandy as a separate entity and merges the two into a powerful storm over the mid Atlantic and North east next Tuesday into the week. 




There are some discussing a similar weather pattern setting up to that of 1954 and the infamous Hurricane Hazel.  The initial pattern looks similar, but in this case, Sandy then could get trapped in or just off the Northeast.

9/3/12 - Tropical Impacts for New England - Next Week.

1st -  Let me apologize for being absent for much of the summer. I have been embarking on a new career path that has taken up a lot of my time. However, I still would like to present important weather information seems appropriate to you, however, at this time a daily forecast cannot be made. When the business aspect takes off, then I hope to be able to do a little bit of both!

2nd - The time has come to update you a possible impact from Tropical Cyclone Leslie.

An interesting meteorological pattern may be setting up, one that we saw in 1989. 

Hurricane Leslie is expected to pass near Bermuda later this week. Typically this track means clear sailing for much of the United States coastline and only a threat to Atlantic Canada.

However, some changes are occurring that are having some meteorologists rethink the eventual track of Leslie.

A trough of low pressure that was forecast to develop and pick up and kick Leslie out to sea, will appear to be actually closing off over the Southeast US.   This will act, instead of a kicker, as a pull system and pull Leslie closer to the US Coast.

As was the case with hurricane Hugo in 1989, the track, not seen brought the hurricane in on a direct path into SC.    This will not be a Hugo, however, what I am seeing is a storm that could be pulled closer to the US coast as it passes by Bermuda, an unusual pattern.  This has been coming to light throughout the day today.  

The worst case scenario now could be that Leslie tracks very close to the Outer Cape (Cod) on Tuesday of next week as a very strong hurricane. Some models are bringing this to a Category 4 near Bermuda.   The track could change of course, and I will keep you posted on any changes!   The least worrisome at this moment will still possibly bring some windy conditions to eastern New England, high seas and a possible shower closest to the coast.

Model Weather Map for Tuesday, Sept 11, 2012..  Leslie is very close to Cape Cod in a worst case scenario.  This may change, but it is something to watch.

6/29/12 Hot weather returns

A heat wave is expected to invade the Boston area this weekend (3 or more days above 90).

The massive heat that has been building in the Rockies and south will move in today and stay with us until Sunday, when a bit of a cool down back into the 80s returns for the holiday week.

It will be coolest along the coastal areas and south facing beaches today.

For today, Friday, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through during the morning hours, then reform later in the day. Expect mid 90s in most places, except upper 80s at the beaches with upper 70s to lower 80s on the Cape. Dew point levels will be dropping today, so it will not feel as humid today or tonight, but will rise over the weekend.

Our heat today is being transported in around a very HOT high pressure to the south. The flow for New England will be mostly west though so the extreme heat remains south.

Scattered Thunderstorms are possible each day, but no areas of organized rain is expected.

6/25/12 Cold then back to summer heat. Rain today!

A strong cold front is pushing its way across New England this morning that will bring heavy rains and thunderstorms across the region as the morning progresses.

Forecast radar image for 11 AM this morning, with one heavy band of showers and thunderstorms moving through Eastern MA.

As the front moves through, over an inch of rain could fall from the storms.  An area of low pressure will form just off the New England coast and will keep the rain from moving too far offshore and keep the clouds around more much of the coastal areas.

Tuesday looks to be a very cool and damp day with a few breaks of sun from time to time especially in southern locations.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be 10-12 degrees cooler than normal.  As the area of low pressure off the coast spins, it will allow for clouds to rotate around it and make for a cloudy day except for the southern parts of New England.

The cool is short lived once again and heat will return for the weekend.

Heat will build across the south east and move into New England for the weekend with temperatures getting into the upper 80s and lower 90s.   It will once again be short lived as a cold front will push through late Sunday into Monday.   Debby will be a slow mover off the FL coast.

6/19/12 Get Your A/C's - Summer is coming!!

Yes!  Summer will arrive tomorrow and the weather will also reflect summertime heat. The cool weather of the past few days will be pushed away as heat and humidity return for a full blast of HOT HOT HOT!!

How it will feel tomorrow afternoon

The heat will only last until Friday, as a another shot of cooler air moves in for the weekend.

However, it will remain extremely humid Wednesday and Thursday night with temperatures only falling into the upper 70s and it will be extremely sticky!   If you need an A/C  get it today before the stores have a mad rush on them!

6/12/12 Heavy Rains for Wednesday

So far, the months of May and June have looked, at least on weather map, like March and April. And vice versa.  The map below shows a pattern more typical of Spring than that of entering the summer solstice next week.

The flow between high pressure over Canada and a Low in the Atlantic means sun, but mild conditions will exist along the east coast for several days. The heat it being pumped into the central Plains.  Also very interesting this year, interesting spin ups of tropical type storms may be happening in such a pattern close to the S Coast.  The high moves into Atlantic Canada this weekend, keeping New England dry, but cool.

For Tuesday, a cold front will slowly push toward New England during the day, expect Sun to be replaced with increasing high clouds to all clouds by late afternoon. Rain arrives by 11 PM in the Boston area. Highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday morning will be a rough go with heavy rain falling in a line from Maine to Long Island.  Up to  a half inch of rain could fall. Heavier amounts over Western New England.

The rain should last for most of the day and taper to showers by afternoon.

After this front pushes through, it will remain well off shore, except for the southern end of it which may Spin up an area of low pressure and track SOUTH as high pressure dominates the east coast. This is an a-typical high as it is coming in from the North Atlantic spreading down the east coast and not a Bermuda high which typically allows warm air to flow north. 

An onshore flow will keep coastal areas cool an a bit breezy, but dry.

This map is difficult to see, but a sprawling area of high pressure will extend from Atlantic Canada all the way to Florida for the weekend.

6/6/12 Summer to return this weekend. Major heat next week!

There is a lot to be said about this past weekends weather. The hows and whys of why it got cold are quite detailed and it is not just one simple answer, in fact it is something in meteorology we call, teleconnections.   This means that many small events, all around the globe can react to cause another event.  Like the butterfly flapping its wings effect.  If any readers wish, I will gladly write a post about what happened. So please respond.  Otherwise, lets look ahead, because frankly, you are not planning for last weekend!

The culprit for the cool, wet weather is still seen on this mornings weather map. An area of low pressure over Atlantic Canada. The flow around this low is bringing very cool air streaming in from the cold waters of the North Atlantic into the Northeast.  The Bermuda high has been pushed south. Heat is building in the central plains.

The weekend weather map, shows warmer air building to our west, a warm front will push through on Saturday evening to bring a chance of a shower along with warmer weather for Sunday into Monday.

Next week looks to be warm, followed by a HOT pattern setting up where highs will possibly get into the 90s.

5/25/12 We have a little bit of everything for everybody! Even HEAT!

This Memorial Day weekend forecast sounds more like a forecast one would be making for Labor Day.  Many features are happening on the weather maps and I hope to convey some of them to you below.

This mornings satellite image shows many of the features that will play in this weekends weather as well as into next week. For New England and Boston the focus will be on a cold front that will push north of us today and the high pressure over the south. A tropical storm is likely forming off the Carolina coast today. Each detailed below.

1.  The cold front -  This front will actually push well north of New England into Canada today and on the day Saturday, allowing the area of high pressure to the south to nudge in for Saturday and give us a very warm day.  However this cold front sneaks back down from Canada on Saturday night and runs into this large area of high pressure to the south and gets stuck over New England at least until Tuesday.

2.  The Hot High pressure that will bring heat to the south nudges in for one day of warmth on Saturday bringing temperatures into the 80s. However the front eventually comes back through and turns the winds east off the ocean and pushed the hotter air back to the mid Atlantic.

3. Disturbances will ride along the front to bring the chances for showers each day into Tuesday

4. A tropical storm is likely to be forming (out of season) off the coast of the Carolinas.  The weather pattern can actually be seen in its model track being pushed back south into GA/FL by late this weekend and then eventually up the coastline and out to sea by next week.

If you would like to see the Atmosphere in motion, click HERE and push FWD, very fascinating pattern.. You do not need to be a meteorologist to understand. What you are seeing is the flow of the atmosphere and the pressure (weather systems)

5/22/12 RAINachusetts... Yup! More rain. Memorial Day Outlook

Thanks to my friend Mikey for today's headline!  Royalties to come in the mail.

Today's weather map has some great weather features on it, if you are a meteorologist!  Not if you are a fan of sunshine, but have no fear, a big warm up is on the way.

An area of low pressure is slowly tracking up the northeast coast, bringing an east wind to most of NE. This will keep our sky cloudy with scattered showers for most of the day.  The former tropical storm Alberto will track well south of New England and eventually become part of the larger overall low pressure with no impact to land areas.    A cold front will slowly push east and bring the chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Scattered rain will be with us for  most of the day today as bands rotate in around the low over the South Shore

Weekend weather map...  High pressure will build across the South pumping heat into the plains and the Northeast. However, a cold front may be hard to displace. At this time, it is too soon to say whether the Boston area will be in the heat or in the cooler marine air.

With the above statement made, the weekend here in New England will end up sunny and hot or cool with some scattered showers.  As the week progresses, we can evaluate the pattern, right now I will go in the middle and not warm us up and keep a scattered shower possible.

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms are possible into Thursday. A more humid airmass moves in late Thursday in to the weekend.

At this point, most areas will see Sunshine, through the weekend. A possible shower is possible on the Cape on Saturday.

5/16/12 Summer Thunderstorms Possible today

Scattered Severe Thunderstorms are possible today primarily west of Boston in Western and Central MA, NH and northern CT away from the influence of the ocean air. The primary threat today will be hail and strong straight line -bow type winds and heavy rain. As with any severe weather event a tornado cannot be ruled out, but conditions do not favor rotation of storms today.

1 PM today, some thunderstorms may develop along the Northshore. 

A thunderstorm set up today, as the rain will push away from the coast. The factor for how strong the storms across MA will get is when the low clouds break away over New England. With such situation. The sun acts as the energy source to promote thunderstorm growth. The more sun and heating of the day, the stronger the storms can become. Therefore, if the clouds break away along the coastline BEFORE 11-12 today, there is the chance for a pop up, isolated thunderstorm before the main line arrives later this afternoon.

A line of thunderstorms will move out of NY into New England around 4-5 PM today. Heavier storms are also possible in Northern Vermont, NH and Maine as well. A sea breeze will likely keep any severe weather limited along the MA coastline, however a pop up thunderstorm is still possible on the Boston area.  If you are curious you can view the model run here to see a loop 

An image to show where to expect heavy downpours associated with Thunderstorms. Most of the activity will be in Central and Western MA today. The RED indicates the current time give at 7 PM tonight and the Green indicates a time 90 min prior at 530 PM.  Note the BOW echo nearing Worcester. Strong winds could be possible.

After today, a great stretch of sunshine and mild temperatures return through early next week with mild days and cooler dry nights.

5/8/12 A very unsettled weather pattern remains for May

Someone told me yesterday, "Why can't the weather be like it was back in March?"  Remember the stretch of sunshine and warmth.

 May is looking very cool and wet for New England and the pattern does not seem to change in the next 2 weeks. With the exception of this weekend where dry air and some sun will make for a beautiful May weekend.

A main area of low pressure will remain over the Northeast US for much of this week bringing clouds and rain showers into New England. Another area of low pressure over Minnesota (1), will join with this low and keep the clouds and rain around for Wednesday into Thursday. And a 2nd low, over Texas, will track across the south and then up the east coast and bring a chance for heavy rain especially along Eastern Mass Thursday into Friday morning.  High pressure over Montana will move in later Friday into the weekend to bring sunshine and gradually warmer temperatures.

Rainfall forecast up to 6 PM today. Heavy showers will fall across NH and VT, where eastern MA will see roughly 1/4" and the cape only a light shower.  The rain will be around through Friday morning however.

Heavy rain will fall Wednesday into Thursday across Cape Cod where up to 3" of rain could fall total. Boston will likely see up to an inch of rain.

(had to revert for older graphics for today for time)

5/6/12 Lack of posts.. and Wet wet wet...

First of all I would like to apologize for the lack of posts this past week. A new job has limited the time to prepare a forecast properly.

To make a good forecast for this blog, usually takes a minimum of 1 hour and sometimes up to 2 hours PLUS, depending on what is going on. 

So what is going on?   Briefly, the pattern that had been persistent from last Fall, through the winter into early April has shifted and we are now in a flow in which the storm track tends to be directly over us, or even to the south of New England.

It is something I like to refer to as the "roller coaster effect"

You can think of the jet stream as a roller coaster track, with the storms going along. New England just happens to be in the dip of the track so everything just pours into the region, the wet and the cool weather. 

A weak front will help usher in some drier air today on Sunday, but with a lot of moisture in the ground from days of rain, the sun will help produce some clouds before there is enough drier air to overtake the moisture.  The weak stationary front to the south will be a focus for the storm track later this week as mid week looks wet.

4/27/12 Freezing Tonight.. bundle up the plants!

The remnants of the past weeks Nor'Easter will finally be pushing off the Maine coast today, as a cold area of high pressure takes control over the northeast US.

The old Nor"Easter which has kept our weather unsettled over the past week will finally be kicked out to sea today, as a cold area of high pressure moves in!

With cold high pressure moving in overnight tonight, a FREEZE WARNING has been issued for much of Southern New England, except the immediate Boston area, the Cape, Islands and Providence, where Urban Heating and Ocean temperatures will keep temperatures above freezing.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT
TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

Cool, but sunny conditions will prevail for the weekend, and a gradual warm up is 

forecast for next week